Biggest Questions Ahead of 2026 MLB Free Agency

Major League Baseball’s free-agency period has turned into a caps-lock EXTRAVAGANZA. Each and every winter, big names change teams and/or sign contracts that foment the most extreme forms of sticker shock. But will this winter’s crop of available talent incite the same kind of spending frenzy? 

That is one of the overarching questions we have as the calendar inches ever closer to 2026 MLB free agency. And rest assured, there are many more—tons of inquiries and storylines engendering interest from fans and media. Heck, MLB free agency is such an event, that you can even wager on certain outcomes and predictions with everyone from bigwig brands who make the acclaimed list at MyTopSportsbooks to boutique shops that traditionally only offer general lines.

Point being: Free agency is a headline-grabber and attention-drawer. And that makes sense. New World Series contenders can be born over the offseason. Conversely, established superpowers can fall. And of course, generational wealth can be given out like candy on Halloween.

So what will be the biggest, most polarizing questions and storylines to follow once 2026 MLB free agency kicks off? Let’s find out.

How Much Money will be Spent in MLB Free Agency?

We begin by returning to our opening question: How much money will MLB teams dole out over the offseason? 

In each of the past four years, free agents have raked in over $3 billion combined in new contract money. Now, these figures are typically helped along by one or two mega-wattage names. As one example, Juan Soto put pen to paper on a 15-year, $765 million deal during the 2025 offseason. Between him, Max Fried joining the New York Yankees for $218 million and Corbin Burnes heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks for $210 million, the 2025 free-agency class crossed the $1 billion threshold with just three player contracts.

Experts generally agree that isn’t going to happen again. Kyle Tucker of the Chicago Cubs is the best name available, and as folks over at The Athletic have pointed out, he’s not guaranteed to land even half as much guaranteed money as Soto did from the Mets.

Still, veteran free agents command big bucks. This year’s class has enough top-end talent to break the $3 billion benchmark for a fifth year running.

Where will Kyle Tucker Go, and How Much Will He Get?

Speaking of Tucker…

Let’s tackle the second part of this question first. Entering the season, many believed the lefty rightfielder, who turns 29 in January, could command a contract that guaranteed him $500-plus million. For a while, it seemed as if $450-plus million might be his floor.

Then, however, the Cubs superstar started to slump midway through the summer. That has many wondering whether his price tag will be deflated. With his 30th birthday not too far out in the distance, teams might get pocket shy when looking at his suddenly ebbing on-base plus slugging percentage.

That brings us to the potential destination of it all. Chicago is among the teams expected to be interested in him, but many believe he might be priced out of town. Some, in fact, already have Tucker outfitted in San Francisco Giants colorways. 

We don’t have a good answer or prediction for this question. Forced to choose, we’d bet on Tucker sniffing somewhere between $350 million and $400 million in guaranteed money—enough cash that we could also see him suiting up somewhere other than The Windy City next season.

Which Teams will Continue Tapping into Japan’s Prospect Pipeline?

Do not hold your breath for the influx of talented Japan prospects to peter out this coming offseason. Three names, in particular, are generating a ton of buzz: Right-handed ace Tatsuya Imai, along with two high-octane third basemen in Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto.

Both the San Diego Padres and New York Mets are name-checked as destinations to watch for the latter two. It is Imai, however, who’s expected to generate the most interest—potentially to the tune of over $250 million. 

Consider this except of intel from ESPN’s Jeff Passan: 

“With Imai flashing excellent control for the first time in his career, it would make sense for the Saitama Seibu Lions to reap a hefty posting fee by allowing him to come to the majors now. Imai won’t get the $325 million the Dodgers gave Yamamoto, but the combination of his age, performance and premier offerings have front office officials offering gaudy predictions. One suggested Imai could get upward of $200 million, though others balked at that number. A second source said he thinks Imai will receive a $150 million contract. Another said something like Patrick Corbin’s 2018 contract with the Washington Nationals — six years, $140 million. The lowest number, among the dozen officials and scouts surveyed, was $80 million, which, with the desire for starting pitching and the number of years Imai should get because he’ll be the youngest one on the market, feels light.”

Which Big-Name Players Could Opt Out?

A small portion of the free-agency field is predicted on certain players opting to hit the open market. Names like Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Cody Bellinger, Shane Bieber, Robert Suarez, Trevor Story, Tyler O’Neill and Joe Pederson, among others, can all hit free agency if they please.

Many of the players with options will wind up exercising them. But among those listed, the prevailing consensus is that basically all of them will decide to explore free agency. O’Neill and Pederson are the lone exceptions, though many remained split on what Story will do as well.

The biggest early takeaway: Life could get expensive for the Mets. Alonso is definitely going to decline his $24 million option, and the same goes for Diaz, their prized closer. Meanwhile, Bellinger is having his best season in more than a half-decade. It would not be shocking to see him net a nine-figure deal.

All in all, out of the eight names listed in this group, we’ll go with six hitting free agency—which only makes for an even more interesting offseason.

The post Biggest Questions Ahead of 2026 MLB Free Agency first appeared on Through The Fence Baseball.

Source: https://throughthefencebaseball.com/biggest-questions-ahead-of-2026-mlb-free-agency/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=biggest-questions-ahead-of-2026-mlb-free-agency