Hot & Cold Map: Ravens vs. New York Jets

The Ravens officially made it back to .500 after starting 1-5. Congratulations. Now begins the push towards the playoffs, and the last game before the Steeler-Bengal gauntlet that will determine whether they make it or not. The opponent this time is the Jets – a team that has been better lately, but is still talent deficient due to injuries as well as trades at the deadline. They’re doing what they need to do for HC Aaron Glenn, which is to… well I won’t say tank because they’ve won two of their last three games… but restructure their roster and collect future assets.

The Jets are 24^th in PFF’s team rankings despite their 2-8 record, ahead of the Vikings and Dolphins who both have double that win total. Their offense ranks 25^th in points and 29^th in yards, and their defense ranks 27^th in points and 20^th in yards. I suppose the team ranking has something to do with a tough strength of schedule.

Regardless, they’re simply a bottom feeder of a team. Again.

Jets Offense vs. Ravens Defense

Offensively, the Jets are pretty traditional under OC Tanner Engstrand. They run 11 personnel 8^th most in the NFL (66.95%), and as you may expect, they’re bad at it (-35.75 EPA). They bring in a second TE in 12 or jumbo 12 personnel 21% of snaps, and when they do that, they do better. They do employ a FB and use 21 personnel 7% of the time with average success. The biggest problem they have is the absence of arguably their best offensive player, WR Garrett Wilson.

The team is turning to Tyrod Taylor to lead them this week after struggling with Justin Fields. Taylor started one prior game this season, a 29-27 loss at Tampa Bay. Conventional wisdom says they’re trading running ability for throwing ability; however, Taylor’s passing stats (in fewer attempts) aren’t much different from Fields’. One thing of note is Fields only thew one interception, while Taylor already has three. Either way, without Wilson, the team has an array of average Joes to throw to, and don’t even really have an established pecking order between Adonai Mitchell, Tyler Johnson, Isaiah Wilson, John Metchie III, and Arian Smith. The biggest receiving threat is probably rookie TE Mason Taylor. Suffice to say, the Ravens have the secondary talent to match up with these guys.

Much like the Browns last week, the Jets need to run to succeed. They average more yards per play rushing (5.0, 3^rd) than passing (4.5, 30^th). Having Fields certainly helps that average, but Breece Hall is the bell cow, and he’ll need to be even more so in front of Taylor. Isaiah Davis is more of a pass catching back right now. The Ravens are doing better lately against the run, due in part to having Kyle Hamilton close to the LOS, and in part to bringing in some new front seven players that defend the run.

The reason why I say Garrett Wilson is arguably their best offensive player is because rookie RT Armand Membou is playing lights out right now. They may not have a QB or a well-developed skill group, but they have their bookend tackles for the future in Membou and LT Olu Fashanu. Given the Ravens don’t have much on the outside, I doubt they’ll get much pass rush production unless they either blitz or run stunts. The interior OL, including former Raven John Simpson, is more exploitable.

Given the Ravens are at home and playing well on defense, I believe their streak of keeping opponents under 20 points continues.

Jets Defense vs. Ravens Offense

The Ravens offense is struggling a bit, particularly in the red zone, but complaints about them are reaching a comical level, and the Browns defense isn’t walking through that door two weeks in a row. They traded away their two best defensive players, Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. There are zero players that Todd Monken must game plan against. The DC is officially Steve Wilks but you have to think this is Glenn’s unit. They generally run a 4-2 nickel with limited rotation. They are definitely in the mode of finding out which young players to keep and build around.

Life isn’t too bad up front for the Jets without Quinnen. The DT pair is an odd couple – Jowon Briggs is the pass rusher and Harrison Phillips the run stuffer. They will be the matchup against the beleaguered set of Ravens OG. The outside trio of Will McDonald, Jermaine Johnson and Michael Clemons are young and talented but haven’t put it all together yet – Ronnie Stanley will be relived not having to face the nightmare that is Myles Garrett. Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams are solid in the second level, but they’re not the kind of LB that can stop Derrick Henry if he gets a head of steam going.

The secondary can be had. Their two best players may be rookies Malachi Moore and Azareye’h Thomas, and they’re still in the learning phase. Old friend CB Brandon Stephens started the season on fire but struggled in coverage the past two games against Cleveland and New England. And if there’s a matchup to exploit, it’s nickel back Jarvis Brownlee against Zay Flowers or whomever is in the slot – Brownlee is giving up a QBR over 100 including 118 the past two games. The Ravens won’t have Rashod Bateman, so it would be nice to see Tez Walker get more action than he has. Justice Hill meanwhile will be back, not just as a pass blocker but as a receiving threat.

This is a good time for the Ravens offense to hang 30+ points again. They can absolutely do it.

Conclusion

This is, on paper, one of the easiest games of the season. All the Ravens have to do is show up with their B game, much less A game. What we hope to see is an A performance, which would be a blowout. This would be a terrible loss if the Ravens blow it. They will head to Thanksgiving comfortably 6-5.

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