Big Chicago Cubs-St.Louis Cardinals trade is not so far-fetched anymore

A Chicago Cubs-St. Louis Cardinals trade for Nolan Arenado, as of a few days ago, still seemed laughably ridiculous. Well, it’s not so laughable anymore.

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The Cubs have made it pretty clear that they’re looking for an upgrade at third base.

While the public line is that they have the utmost faith in Matt Shaw, their movements behind the scenes show that their confidence in the young star is not really all that solid. Hence, the reported interest in Eugenio Suarez at last season’s trade deadline and the current interest in big-ticket free agent Alex Bregman.

The problem, though, is that the Cubs are the Cubs and spending ridiculous money is not their thing, and neither is giving away a haul of prospects for one veteran player.

So, the most likely resolution to the third base dilemma is that Chicago will stand pat with Shaw or that they will work around the fringes of the situation, picking up a solid backup who could step in for Shaw when/if needed.

Cubs-Cards Nolan Arenado trade talk was pure fantasy…until now

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The idea of a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals for Nolan Arenado has been the stuff of fantasy fan talk for a couple of years and there were several reasons for that being nothing but fantasy. First, the Cubs and Cards are bitter division rivals and haven’t made a trade in nearly 20 years. Second, Arenado’s massive contract as a past-prime player was always seen as a “no-go” for the frugal Cubs ownership. Third, Arenado has a no-trade clause in his contract and could veto any deal not to his liking.

However, over the last couple of days, pretty much all of the hurdles preventing such a trade have been removed.

Removing the hurdles

Katie Woo and Will Sammon, in a recent piece for The Athletic, reported that that the Cardinals are willing to eat a good chunk of the money still owed the veteran third basemen (about $42 million in total through 2027, although undisclosed deferred money complicates the picture a bit).

Arenado also appears to be eager to split from the cost-cutting Cardinals at this point and seems willing to overlook his no-trade clause, as well as split time between first base and third base.

Per Woo and Sammon:

“[Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim] Bloom has reiterated multiple times that moving Arenado would be best for both the team and the player. Bloom has also repeated that releasing Arenado is ‘not an option.’ The big question isn’t if the Cardinals trade Arenado; it’s how. With ownership much more willing to include money in trades (as evidenced particularly in Gray’s case), a salary dump looks to be the likeliest option.

There will be teams willing to take Arenado if a majority of his contract is paid down. Arenado has roughly $40 million remaining over the final two years of his deal. Similar to last offseason, it’s believed he’s also willing to split time between third and first base to free up position flexibility if needed. But many other factors, including player preference and timing, will need to come into play. Right now, all Arenado and the Cardinals can do is wait.”

Bloom is new to the president job and clearly not averse to making waves with roster decisions (so far this offseason, he’s already traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras and is reportedly shopping Brendan Donovan). It’s not crazy to assume he’d buck tradition and make a deal with the Cards’ fiercest NL Central rivals if it made sense to do so.

How Arenado fits into the Cubs’ plans

For the Cubs, going for Arenado would be the clear backup plan if they couldn’t land Bregman (or Suarez), but it wouldn’t necessarily place the 13-year veteran as the team’s starting third baseman. It’s easy to see a scenario where the 34-year-old splits time with Shaw at third and works as the right-handed backup to Michael Busch at first in a platoon situation similar to the Busch-Justin Turner pairing last season.

Arenado hasn’t had a really good offensive season since 2023 and he appears to be an old 34. But he IS a 10-time Gold Glove winner and still profiles as a top-tier defender at third. He’ll also be coming into 2026 just two full seasons removed from his last All-Star Game appearance. Even at his very worst, he could be a valuable depth piece for a team looking for depth and flexibility ahead of a playoff push.

He also represents the kind of gamble Cubs president Jed Hoyer loves to embrace. Betting on a once-prodigious talent to regain his form in a new setting– at a considerably reduced price– is trademark Cubs modus operandi.

And while there’ve been no reports of any talks going on between the two teams, it might be smart for the Cubs to kick the tires on this one.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-st-louis-cardinals-trade-nolan-arenado