Chicago Cubs: Evaluating the closer situation for 2026

One of the biggest questions for the Cubs heading into Spring Training is who will claim the closer role to start the regular season. The Cubs have made a number of bullpen moves this offseason, though they did not shell out for a bona fide closer. Depth charts currently have Daniel Palencia, who recorded 22 saves last season. Whether he ends up in that spot on opening day is currently up in the air.

Can Palencia serve as the closer again?

Last year was a big jump for Palencia. He pitched to a 2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.08 FIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 52.2 innings. While not serving as the closer in October, he pitched to a 3.52 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six postseason appearances.

He was spectacular in the first half last year, pitching to a 1.57 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and .160/.235/.261 slash against in 34.1 innings. However, things dipped in the second half, resulting in a 5.40 ERA, 1.6 WHIP, and .325/.373/.519 slash against over his final 21 appearances. Add on a shoulder injury in early-September, sidelining him for a few weeks.

In terms of stuff, Palencia has that electric fastball that can reach triple digits. His strikeout rate was in the 86th percentile per Statcast, which is very good. Meanwhile the whiff rate was in the 68th percentile, above average though not eye-popping. His command, which was a mess during his first two stints in the Majors, notably improved last year. A few areas that did not look good were the chase rate (34th percentile), average exit velocity (29th percentile), and hard-hit rate (2nd percentile).

ZiPS has Palencia at a 3.74 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 9.98 K/9, 3.74 BB/9 in 49 appearances. Not ideal closer numbers, but they are just projections. Overall, he had a good stretch last year where he looked like a legit closer, but the hard contact and struggles towards the end were troubling. Palencia is a top option, but not a shoo-in.

Other closer options for the Cubs.

One of the big arms the Cubs brought in was righty Hunter Harvey. He’s had injury issues in recent years, but he has good stuff and is effective when healthy. Since 2022, he’s pitched to a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.94 FIP, 2.3 BB/9, and 9.9 K/9 in 161.1 innings. Harvey’s fastball sits in the high-90s while mixing in a splitter, slider, and curve. It’s risky for sure, but there’s intrigue with his stuff and exceptional command.

While this might make some feel uneasy, Porter Hodge is still in the mix. An injury-riddled and inconsistent 2025 made his sophomore year in the Majors a forgettable one. He showed promise as a rookie in 2024, pitching to a 1.88 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.75 FIP, 10.9 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9 in 43 innings. The ability to get whiffs with a mid-to-high 90s fastball, sweeper, and slider has been seen. Command has been a bit of an issue, resulting in walks or hard hit balls on pitches that miss spots. That said, he is only 24, and his potential remains.

Other candidates could emerge in Spring ball. Whether it’s someone who gets repurposed, like Ben Brown, or another arm that’s either brought in or comes from within the organization. Recent track records of getting value from the likes of Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Tyson Miller, Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, Scott Effross, etc. show the Cubs can find effective high-leverage arms from anywhere.

Spring Training can give a better insight into what Craig Counsell has to work with. It could be one guy, or a committee again.

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