Imanaga’s resurgence puts the Cubs in a difficult financial decision

A year ago, Shota Imanaga was at a crossroads. His first season in Chicago began with promise, as he made the All-Star game and threw a no-hitter.  But last season, he unraveled after suffering a left hamstring strain on May 5, 2025, which sidelined him for nearly two months. After his return, the rest of the season was marked by inconsistency, diminished fastball life, and a league that seemed to have caught up to him. As a result, the Cubs fans and media had given up on him.

When the offseason arrived, the Cubs extended a qualifying offer, thinking he would not accept it and hit free agency. Instead, Imanaga accepted it, much to the surprise of the Cubs and the fans. He bet on himself and on the idea that the pitcher who took the league by storm in early 2024 was still in there somewhere.

So far, that bet is paying off in 2026.

Imanaga hasn’t just bounced back. He’s pitching like one of the most effective pitchers in the National League, and Wednesday’s outing against the Atlanta Braves was the latest example. Facing one of baseball’s deepest lineups, he went seven innings, allowed minimal hard contact, and kept the Cubs in the game throughout. Yet he still took the loss — a reminder that pitcher wins don’t always tell the story.

More importantly, he’s giving the Cubs exactly what they lacked during last year’s turbulence: a dependable, every‑fifth‑day stabilizer. Injuries and inconsistency have hit the rotation in 2026, but Imanaga has been the constant. This is the version of Imanaga the Cubs envisioned when they first signed him. The version they hoped they’d see again when he accepted the qualifying offer. The version that now complicates their future.

The Cubs have a huge financial decision awaiting this offseason

Imanaga is set to hit free agency again after the 2026 season. So are Jamison Taillon and Matthew Boyd. Three veteran starters, three expiring contracts, and a front office that has to decide how much of its future it wants to tie to pitchers in their 30s. Taillon has been steady but unspectacular. Boyd is already 35 years old and has been on IL twice.

But if Imanaga continues pitching like this, he won’t be looking at another one‑year qualifying offer. He’ll be looking at multi‑year commitments.

It is a gamble Jed Hoyer may have to make, as the Cubs have learned that pitching development is unpredictable. So far, Ben Brown has pitched well in the last two games as a spot starter. But has not gone past 4 innings in both games. Jordan Wicks has struggled with both injuries and inconsistencies.

Meanwhile, Cade Horton, who had high hopes coming into this season, is out for the remainder of the 2026 season due to damage to his right ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) on April 3rd. He might not pitch again until 2028. And their top pitching prospect, Jaxon Wiggins, who already underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, has not pitched since April 4th, and his return is up in the air.

If Imanaga is repeating his 2025 struggles, the decision would be simple. But he reinvented himself and stabilized the rotation this season. Now he’s pitching his way into a major payday. Let’s not forget his fellow countryman, Seiya Suzuki, is also a free agent after this season. Losing both hurts their marketability in Japan, while Munetaka Murakami is growing the Chicago White Sox’s reputation.

The Cubs won’t just have to decide whether they can afford to keep him. They’ll have to decide whether they can afford not to.

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