Geomagnetic Storm Could Bring New Year’s Eve Aurora To Parts Of US

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

With solar storms causing a geomagnetic storm on Earth, the northern lights or aurora borealis could extend beyond the Arctic Circle down into the northernmost U.S. states this New Year’s Eve, according to a Dec. 31 forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The moderate-strong G2-G3 geomagnetic storm, with a Kp index of 6-7, forecasted for Dec. 31 by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, means the aurora could be visible in New York and Idaho, and potentially as far south as Illinois and Oregon.

The Kp-index measures geomagnetic activity in the Earth’s atmosphere. “For Kp in the range 6 to 7, the aurora will move even further from the poles and will become quite bright and active,” according to NOAA.

A minor G1-level geomagnetic storm warning is also active from New Year’s Eve into Jan. 1. These storms typically produce auroras visible only from higher latitudes, in locations such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Multiple solar flares—two X-class solar flares and 17 M-class flares—erupted on the Sun within 24 hours on Dec. 29.

Two of the M-class flares released solar storms, or streams of electrically charged particles and plasma called coronal mass ejections (CMEs), toward Earth.

This prompted the Space Weather Prediction Center to issue two geomagnetic storm warnings ahead of the CMEs’ arrival.

Traveling 93 million miles, the CMEs are expected to reach Earth early in the mornings of Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

This is when the chance of seeing a turbo-charged aurora will be best.

The aurora, known as the northern lights (aurora borealis) or southern lights (aurora australis), occurs when charged particles released by the Sun during flares arrive at Earth. These particles are directed by Earth’s protective magnetosphere toward the poles, where they collide with gases in the atmosphere. This interaction releases excess energy as colorful glows of light, visible as the aurora.

The stronger the solar flare, the more energy arrives at Earth, and the brighter and more widespread the aurora.

When, Where to See the Aurora

Clear, night skies are best for being able to see the aurora.

The geomagnetic storm early New Year’s Eve morning and night (Eastern Time) may bring the colorful aurora to places above 50 degrees geomagnetic latitude, such as Alaska, Washington, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.

If the geomagnetic storm is strong enough, parts of Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Iowa, and New York may also get a glimpse of the lights early Dec. 31 Eastern Time before the sun rises.

The CME from the first solar flare is forecast to arrive at Earth by midday UTC (7 a.m. ET) on Dec. 31, and the second flare near midday UTC (7 a.m. ET) on Jan. 1.

Those in the upper latitudes in the Eastern Hemisphere will have a chance of seeing a brighter-than-usual aurora on New Year’s Eve.

Updates to the forecast are available on NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center website.

Uptick in Solar Activity

The recent uptick in strong geomagnetic storms, seen as strong auroras, marks a period of increased solar activity on the Sun.

The Sun’s activity has been observed to move through an 11-year solar cycle and has reached its solar maximum period.

In May, the Earth was hit by the strongest geomagnetic storm in 20 years—a G5-level storm associated with an X8.7 solar flare—that saw reports of the aurora being visible as far south as Florida.

October saw an X1.8 solar flare and a resulting G3-level storm. X-class flares are the strongest category of solar flare and are 10 times the intensity of the preceding category, the M-class solar flare. They increase the risk of disturbances to satellite communications, power grids, and navigation systems.

The current solar maxima, which started in 2020, is expected to last at least into 2026.