Where Food Inflation Is Expected To Hit Hardest In 2026

Food prices remain one of the most persistent cost pressures for households worldwide. In 2026, grocery bills are projected to rise sharply in some countries, while remaining relatively stable in others.

According to new forecasts from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), food inflation will vary dramatically across 160 countries in 2026, ranging from double-digit surges in some economies to outright price declines in others.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, ranks 160 countries by their projected year-over-year change in food prices, highlighting where households are likely to face the steepest increases in 2026.

The Countries Facing the Steepest Food Price Increases

Today, inflation pressures remain strongest in emerging and import-dependent economies.

Food inflation is influenced by currency movements, commodity prices, trade disruptions, and domestic supply conditions. Countries experiencing currency depreciation or ongoing economic instability tend to see sharper increases in food costs.

Rank	Country	Year-Over-Year Food Inflation Forecast 2026 (%)
1	Iran	55.9
2	Argentina	33.2
3	Türkiye	25.1
4	Haiti	24.1
5	Malawi	21.2
6	Nigeria	17.1
7	Lebanon	14.9
8	Angola	14.8
9	Kazakhstan	12.7
10	Zambia	10.8
11	Ethiopia	10.1
12	Jamaica	9.7
13	Mongolia	9.7
14	Kyrgyzstan	9.4
15	Ukraine	9.2
16	Belarus	8.9
17	Solomon Islands	8.8
18	Burundi	8.8
19	Bangladesh	8.3
20	Dominican Republic	8.2
21	Georgia	8.2
22	Romania	7.4
23	Cabo Verde	7.2
24	Kuwait	7.2
25	Cameroon	7.0
26	Azerbaijan	6.8
27	Kenya	6.8
28	Somalia	6.7
29	Tanzania	6.7
30	Gambia	6.6
31	Canada	6.1
32	Tunisia	5.7
33	Cayman Islands	5.7
34	Madagascar	5.6
35	Saint Kitts and Nevis	5.6
36	Uzbekistan	5.5
37	Paraguay	5.3
38	Honduras	5.2
39	Curaçao	5.1
40	Iceland	5.1
41	North Macedonia	5.0
42	Rwanda	4.9
43	Moldova	4.9
44	Botswana	4.8
45	Libya	4.8
46	Lesotho	4.7
47	Antigua and Barbuda	4.7
48	Russia	4.6
49	Greenland	4.5
50	Chile	4.5
51	South Africa	4.4
52	Slovenia	4.3
53	Bhutan	4.3
54	Qatar	4.2
55	UK	4.5
56	Colombia	4.1
57	Malta	4.0
58	Tajikistan	3.8
59	Latvia	3.8
60	Ireland	3.8
61	Uganda	3.7
62	UAE	3.6
63	Viet Nam	3.6
64	Ghana	3.6
65	Pakistan	3.5
66	Belize	3.5
67	Estonia	3.5
68	Bulgaria	3.4
69	Austria	3.4
70	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.4
71	Mexico	3.3
72	Equatorial Guinea	3.3
73	Japan	3.3
74	Guatemala	3.3
75	Sweden	3.3
76	Sri Lanka	3.2
77	Australia	3.2
78	Peru	3.1
79	Armenia	3.1
80	Mozambique	3.1
81	Nicaragua	3.1
82	Netherlands	2.9
83	Greece	2.9
84	Portugal	2.9
85	Brazil	2.8
86	Indonesia	2.8
87	Spain	2.7
88	South Korea	2.7
89	Luxembourg	2.7
90	U.S.	2.7
91	Laos	2.6
92	Israel	2.6
93	Mauritania	2.5
94	Norway	2.4
95	Montenegro	2.4
96	Benin	2.4
97	Grenada	2.3
98	Côte d’Ivoire	2.2
99	Andorra	2.2
100	Aruba	2.1
101	Italy	2.1
102	Senegal	2.0
103	Lithuania	2.0
104	Oman	2.0
105	Barbados	2.0
106	Maldives	1.9
107	Namibia	1.8
108	Germany	1.8
109	Malaysia	1.7
110	Saudi Arabia	1.7
111	Croatia	1.6
112	France	1.6
113	Slovakia	1.6
114	Thailand	1.5
115	Iraq	1.4
116	Afghanistan	1.4
117	Ecuador	1.3
118	Albania	1.2
119	Nepal	1.2
120	New Zealand	1.2
121	Poland	1.2
122	French Polynesia	1.1
123	Philippines	1.0
124	Mauritius	0.9
125	Trinidad and Tobago	0.9
126	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.8
127	Singapore	0.8
128	Finland	0.8
129	Denmark	0.7
130	El Salvador	0.7
131	Mali	0.6
132	Bahrain	0.5
133	Papua New Guinea	0.4
134	Cyprus	0.4
135	Brunei Darussalam	0.4
136	Dominica	0.4
137	New Caledonia	0.1
138	India	0.0
139	China	0.0
140	Cambodia	-0.1
141	Belgium	-0.1
142	Egypt	-0.2
143	Samoa	-0.5
144	Algeria	-0.5
145	Djibouti	-0.6
146	Burkina Faso	-0.8
147	Seychelles	-1.3
148	Switzerland	-1.3
149	Czechia	-1.4
150	Serbia	-1.5
151	Jordan	-1.7
152	Zimbabwe	-1.7
153	Hungary	-2.2
154	Chad	-2.6
155	Morocco	-2.8
156	Fiji	-3.5
157	Costa Rica	-6.0
158	Togo	-6.4
159	Liberia	-7.4
160	Niger	-18.1

At the top of the ranking is Iran, where food prices are forecast to rise 55.9% year-over-year.

Iran’s currency depreciation and prolonged inflationary pressures have already pushed food inflation to extreme levels in recent years. The 2026 forecast suggests those pressures may persist.

Several Sub-Saharan African economies—including Nigeria (17.1%), Angola (14.8%), Zambia (10.8%), and Ethiopia (10.1%)—also rank among the highest. In many of these countries, food inflation is closely tied to currency volatility, import dependency, and supply-side disruptions.

Regional Differences in Food Inflation

While the global average is projected at 3.2%, the regional breakdown shows stark differences in how food prices are expected to evolve in 2026.

The Middle East and North Africa region stands out, with nearly triple the global average.

North America sits around the middle of the pack, with food prices projected to rise 4.3%. In the U.S., prices are expected to increase 2.7%, while in Canada, prices could climb at more than twice that pace.

Meanwhile, much of Asia-Pacific is projected to see relatively modest food price growth.

While global food inflation is expected to fall in the single digits in 2026, the regional picture tells a far more uneven story. For millions of households in high-inflation economies, grocery bills may remain one of the most persistent economic pressures in the year ahead.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the U.S. cities with the highest grocery costs.