“Escalation Trap”: Robert Pape Blasts Bessent’s “Economic D-Day” Targeting Iran

University of Chicago professor Robert Pape tore into Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s so-called “Economic D-Day” campaign against Iran, branding it a dangerous “escalation trap” that history shows will not force Tehran to fold, and may instead drag the United States deeper into war.

Appearing recently on the “Breaking Points” podcast, Pape, a longtime scholar of air power, blockades and sanctions, argued that Bessent is selling maximum economic pressure as an alternative to more fighting.

“That’s not what it is,” Pape told “Breaking Points” co-host Saagar Enjeti. “What it’s really going to lead to is another escalation trap. And if anything, if he in fact goes forward, it would be more military war.”

Pape said the measures have never on their own won a major war or toppled a government in a major conflict. The professor highlighted the British blockade of Germany in World War I and the U.S. blockade of Japan in World War II, both of which ended only after grinding ground campaigns and, in Japan’s case, the atomic bombs.”

“Bessent is really not doing a good service to the world by saying that this is an off-ramp to escalation,” Pape said. “All we need is one, sir. One case. And you know what? There’s not a case.”

Pape also warned that targets often lash back, explaining that sanctions slapped on Japan helped produce the Pearl Harbor attack, which he called a well-known and uncontroversial point, and that tightening the noose on Iran and its trading partners, including China, risks a similar spiral in which Tehran strikes back and Washington is forced to escalate further.”

These are not off-ramps to war,” Pape said. “They’re effectively the Western way of war because they persuade liberal audiences [we've] done everything you could do, so force is a last resort.”

Pape’s warning comes as Bessent signaled the pressure campaign against Iran is only getting started. The Treasury secretary said Sunday, ahead of a Group of 20 financial leaders meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, that new secondary sanctions will roll out every week to intensify the squeeze on Iran.

“You’re going to see a lot more of these every week,” the top Trump official said.

Last week, Bessent launched the Trump administration’s long-awaited “Operation Economic Outcast,” unveiling sweeping sanctions designed to sever Iran from the dollar-based financial system and punish any foreign government or entity that keeps facilitating Tehran’s trade. The first wave targeted nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels tied to the regime’s nuclear, missile, cyber and oil networks, spanning brokerage firms, financial intermediaries and shadow-fleet ships operating across China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Switzerland and Europe.

In recent days, the U.S. Treasury blacklisted the UAE branches of Egypt’s Banque Misr, alleging financial ties to Iran and money laundering, and cut those branches off from the U.S. financial system for obtaining dollars.