Breaking Down $15 billion Spent on California’s Train to Nowhere

In November 2008, California voters approved a ballot measure to build a bullet train from San Francisco to Los Angeles.

It was supposed to be fast enough to make the journey in under three hours. And passengers could hop on by 2020, for a total cost of $33 billion.

Eighteen years later, there is nothing to ride.

Emblematic of the progress so far is a field outside Fresno, where lonely viaducts poke into the sky with no rail connecting them. The locals call it their own Stonehenge.

And the state’s 2026 revised business plan now says it will cost $126 billion to complete… by 2040. Eighteen years into a 12-year project, they’re now saying they need another $93 billion and 14 more years.

Why is the price nearly four times higher than the original estimate?

Well, let’s try to answer that by tracking where the $15 billion already spent has gone.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority’s own business plan shows that about $9.1 billion went to three construction contracts covering 119 miles of the project. Those contracts are for the civil work only, meaning dirt, pipes, power lines, and concrete.

For that, California got about 80 miles of finished roadbed, i.e. the raised, graded earth that the track will eventually sit on, plus various bridges and overpasses.

In case you’re not keeping score, that works out to $77 million per mile… but that doesn’t include the actual train tracks.

No, California plans on building the rail, the electric wire, and the signals with an additional $3.5 billion contract— which was just awarded in June (i.e. 18 years in to a 14-year project).

And $3.5 billion of rail only encompasses a very small portion of the total distance they need to build.

For a rough comparison, Brightline— a private company in Florida— finished a Miami to Orlando line in 2023, with 235 miles of track, stations, and trains, for about $6 billion, or $25 million a mile.

So California’s is three times what Florida’s cost WITHOUT including the cost of the rail, the trains, and the stations.

Extraordinary. Where did all this money go?

They claim that $1.57 billion went to buying property— the narrow strip of land under the 119 miles (i.e. less than a third of the project).

But if you look at real estate prices in the area (Central Valley farmland went for about $12,000 an acre when the buying started), the actual land value was worth maybe $35 million at the time.

In other words, the state OVERPAID what the land was worth by 30x. I’m sure absolutely zero politicians or their families profited from that overpayment.

The next $3.6 billion went to studies, i.e. environmental reviews, and something the state calls “program-wide support”. That’s the second-biggest item on the bill.

The Authority started in 2008 with ten employees and hired a consulting firm to run the project. By 2018 the state had grown its own staff to about 190, with the consulting firm employing 485 people on the job.

This outside firm is generating hundreds of millions of dollars per year to do nothing.

When the state auditor went looking for what all those people had produced, 145 of the 184 deliverables were missing.

Not deliverables like rails and bridges. We’re talking about reports. The consultants couldn’t even manage that.

Governor Gavin Newsom’s reaction was to promise a purge. Yet the same firm still runs the project. And every slip in the schedule means the firm gets paid more. In fact this year’s plan added another $145 million for consultants.

In July the project’s own Inspector General wrote that the Authority “has obscured basic facts about the project” and made oversight harder for the legislature.

For example, in January, the Authority agreed to pay one of its contractors $537 million to settle nearly 600 claims for extra costs.

What claims? Were the claims real? Nobody knows, because nobody has audited it. The Inspector General, whose job that is, says his office is half-staffed. Maybe he should hire an outside consulting firm.

How could anyone look at all this and not see the same kind of fraud the Somalis are running in Minneapolis?

You take tax dollars and funnel them through layers of government employees, consultants, contractors, and unions, all of them tied to the political establishment. In return, those people spend a slice of their ill-gotten gains keeping the politicians who make it possible in office.

California’s version may be ‘legal’ graft. But that hardly makes it different. It might be worse, since at least in Minneapolis the people on the take can be prosecuted.

Who’s to say the contractor didn’t earn an extra $537 million? Who’s to say the consultants’ reports weren’t worth every dollar of the $3.6 billion?

And when someone tries to get to the bottom of it, they make asking questions illegal.

Nick Shirley, the YouTuber whose video of empty tax-funded Minneapolis day cares went viral last Christmas, walked into a Los Angeles immigrant-services nonprofit this summer and asked where the $80 million in government money it has taken over the last four years went.

But they were ready to silence him, because two months after the Minneapolis video, that same nonprofit had co-sponsored a bill letting its staff sue anyone who posts videos of them online. Newsom signed it into law on Saturday.

Starting in October 2027, anyone who works at, volunteers at, or gets help from an immigration nonprofit can sue whoever posts their picture online, for at least $4,000 plus attorney’s fees.

And these are the same people who mock anyone who suggests an election might not be secure.

Why wouldn’t you trust them to count the mail-in ballots at 3 a.m.?

Nobody should bet a family’s future on these people getting better. The tax-funded gravy train isn’t slowing down if they have anything to do with it.

And that’s exactly why it makes sense to have a Plan B.

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Source

Simon Black is an international investor, entrepreneur and permanent traveler. His daily letter is both educational and entertaining, and we suggest that those who want unbiased, actionable information about global opportunities sign up for Sovereign Man’s free, actionable newsletter at http://www.SovereignMan.com.

From Simon Black of SovereignMan.com

Source: https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/breaking-down-15-billion-spent-on-californias-train-to-nowhere-155738/