Werewolves in Sheeps’ Clothing

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Next week in Frankfurt, I’m teaching “soft skills,” which are interpersonal skills that enable effective communication, collaboration, and problem-solving. These skills cover a wide array of areas, such as presentation skills, negotiation skills, business writing skills, and other critical and transferable skills.

I’m always looking for new games and simulations, as chalk-and-talk gets boring quickly. The only way to learn those skills is by doing them.

During my research, I came across the most fascinating game I’ve ever heard of. It applies directly to what’s going on in the Western world. I’ll share it with you now.

The Wolf at the Door

The game “Werewolf” (or “Mafia,” as it is sometimes called) is a social deduction game in which players are divided into two groups: the informed minority and the uninformed majority. The goal for each group is simple: survive and eliminate the other. However, what makes Werewolf fascinating is how it mirrors social dynamics, power struggles, and the subtleties of influence — dynamics that relate to modern U.S. politics.

The Origins of Werewolf

Werewolf is a variant of the Russian game “Mafia,” created by Dmitry Davidoff in 1986. Davidoff designed it as a psychological game to explore social behavior, communication, and the breakdown of trust in groups. Originally used in classrooms and psychology studies, the game rapidly gained popularity, spreading to parties and conventions and eventually spawning several iterations, including Werewolf.

The premise of Werewolf is simple: a village is plagued by werewolves, and each night, one villager is killed. By day, the villagers must try to identify and lynch the werewolves hiding among them.

The tension of the game arises from the fact that a small, informed group (the werewolves) knows who they are and coordinates their actions in secret. Meanwhile, the larger, uninformed majority (the villagers) must try to deduce the werewolves’ identities through conversation, accusation, and often baseless suspicions.

The Uninformed Majority

In Werewolf, the uninformed majority is made up of regular villagers. Their only advantage lies in their numbers, but their disadvantage is their lack of knowledge. They don’t know who the werewolves are, so they must rely on intuition, social cues, and communication to uncover them. Throughout the game, villagers are vulnerable to misinformation, manipulation, and internal division, often turning on each other in desperate attempts to identify the wolves.

This mirrors the challenges faced by the general public in political environments. In any society, most voters (the uninformed majority) don’t have access to the same level of information as political insiders, campaign strategists, or policymakers (the informed minority). John Q. Average decides based on limited information, media reports, political rhetoric, and, often, partisan bias. In this environment, misinformation spreads easily, creating confusion and mistrust.

In recent U.S. politics, we’ve seen how easily the uninformed majority is misled. From the rapid spread of disinformation on social media platforms to the growing polarization of traditional media, voters are bombarded with conflicting messages — especially from their government!

Just as the villagers in Werewolf must decide who to trust based on incomplete information, U.S. voters must navigate a complex landscape of political messaging, fake news, and emotional appeals to substantiate their opinions.

The Informed Minority

In Werewolf, the werewolves are the informed minority. They know who they are and use that knowledge to deceive the villagers. Their goal is to sow confusion and distrust among the villagers, steering suspicion away from themselves. Often, the werewolves will accuse innocent players or try to exploit any existing divisions among the villagers to weaken the majority.

Similarly, in politics, the informed minority consists of politicians, lobbyists, and other insiders who have access to far more information than the general public. They understand the nuances of policies, the intricacies of the political process, and how public opinion is molded. Often, this informed minority will use their knowledge to manipulate the uninformed majority, whether through targeted advertising, misleading statistics, or emotionally charged rhetoric.

This has become increasingly evident in U.S. politics, particularly with the rise of highly sophisticated political campaigns that use data analytics and behavioral science to pinpoint specific groups of voters. Political operatives craft messages that play on voters’ fears, biases, and insecurities, much like how the werewolves in the game try to manipulate the villagers’ paranoia.

One striking example of this was the 2016 U.S. presidential election, where micro-targeted ads on platforms like Facebook were used to sway key swing voters. The informed minority, in this case, consisted of political consultants, data scientists, and social media companies who understood the power of these tactics, while the majority of voters were unaware of the extent to which they were being influenced. Luckily, the Hildebeast failed to win that time.

The Erosion of Trust

A key aspect of Werewolf is the gradual erosion of trust within the group. As more players are eliminated, the remaining villagers become increasingly suspicious of one another. Werewolf is a game of paranoia, where no one is entirely sure who is telling the truth. This mirrors the decline of trust in American politics, particularly in the era of hyper-partisanship.

According to the Pew Research Center, trust in the U.S. government is near historic lows. This mistrust is not only directed at politicians and institutions but also at fellow citizens. Political polarization has led to deep divisions in American society, with people increasingly viewing those with opposing political views as enemies rather than fellow citizens with different opinions. This is the essence of what happens in a game of Werewolf when players begin to turn on one another, unable to discern truth from deception.

The Role of Media: A Double-Edged Sword

In Werewolf, players rely heavily on communication and persuasion to navigate the game. Some players may dominate the discussion, while others can’t get a word in edgewise. The same is true in U.S. politics, where media plays a critical role in shaping the narrative.

The media serves as a primary source of information for the public, but it’s also a tool for Deep State manipulation. Just as werewolves in the game may spread misinformation to throw the villagers off their trail, Deep State and its media minions use media outlets to promote narratives that serve their interests. This is particularly evident in the rise of partisan media, where different news outlets use the exact words to report stories, further fueling division among the electorate.

At the same time, the media should act as a guardian, exposing corruption, uncovering hidden truths, and holding the informed minority accountable. (But those days are long past.) In this way, the media in U.S. politics plays a dual role, much like certain players in Werewolf who have special abilities, such as the Seer, who can secretly uncover the identity of the werewolves. However, as in the game, the alternative media’s efforts to reveal the truth are undermined by those who seek to discredit them, labeling unfavorable reports as “fake news” or biased.

Lessons for U.S. Politics

Werewolf is a game of survival, strategy, and social dynamics. Its lessons extend far beyond the game table and provide valuable insights into the nature of politics, particularly in the United States today.

Misinformation leads to disastrous outcomes both in Werewolf and in politics. The ability of the informed minority to shape the narrative and manipulate the uninformed majority is a powerful tool. Voters must critically evaluate the information they receive, question sources, and seek out multiple perspectives.

In Werewolf, trust is the key to success for the villagers. Similarly, in politics, trust in institutions, leaders, and fellow citizens is vital for a functioning republic. The erosion of trust leads to division, making it easier for manipulative actors to gain power.

The uninformed majority in Werewolf only wins by coming together and working as a cohesive unit. Divisions and infighting only serve to weaken them, allowing the werewolves to win. In U.S. politics, overcoming polarization and finding common ground is crucial for addressing the nation’s challenges.

Just as the Seer in Werewolf must use its powers wisely to uncover the truth, voters must remain vigilant, stay informed, and hold political actors accountable. Blind trust or indifference leads to the rise of harmful forces within the political system.

Wrap Up

At its core, Werewolf is a game about power dynamics, trust, and deception. These same dynamics play out in U.S. politics, where an informed minority holds the upper hand over an uninformed majority. However, by recognizing the strategies of manipulation, fostering trust, and promoting unity, the majority can reclaim control and ensure that government works for the benefit of all.

Understanding Werewolf’s lessons may not solve all the problems in U.S. politics, but it provides a useful framework for thinking about how power is wielded and how the public must resist manipulation in an increasingly complex political landscape.

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