The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 15 2024

Important developments on the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove front | Massive strikes in western Ukraine 15/01/25

Massive Russian Trap l Huge Number Of Ukrainian Forces Are In Danger Of Encirclement

[ Battle of Toretsk ] Russias forces reaches northern most part of Toretsk; Full capture imminent!

Russian Ministry of Defence: 

In the morning, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a group strike with high-precision weapons and drones against critical gas and energy infrastructure facilities supporting the work of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex. The purpose of the strike has been achieved. All designated facilities have been hit.

As recently as yesterday, Ukrainian media wrote that the strike on the oil depot in Engels “paralyzed the flights of the strategic aviation of the Russian Federation”. 

But today, the strategic aviation of the Russian Air Force has completely paralyzed several Ukrainian airfields, two or three thermal power plants and a gas hub with storage. 

And this is not the end.

Condotierro

Lvov was bombed from all sides: 

Ukrainians draw a “map of unprecedentedly large-scale night strikes” by the Russian air force – according to one version, the main target was Ukraine’s largest gas storage facility.

West of Ukraine attacked: explosions in Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk regions 

 - Many missiles flew into Ivano-Frankivsk region, there were at least 5 powerful explosions.

 - The missiles are headed for Stryi, Lviv region authorities said.

 - Preventive blackouts in Ukraine were confirmed by Energy Minister Galushchenko.

Ukraine is under massive attack: the alarm is roaring across the country

 - 7 TU-22M3s and 6 TU-95ms, as well as MiG-31s, have launched missiles. 

 - Ballistics launch from Belgorod region is also reported. 

 - The missiles are already in Ukrainian airspace.

 - There have been explosions in Kharkov.

 - The AFU air force reports missiles in Sumy and Nikolaev regions, as well as Krivoy Rog and Chernigov region.

 - The bulk of the missiles are now flying through Zhitomir, Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskiy regions on a course to the west, the Air Force and monitoring publics report.

 - The missiles are already in Lvov region, regional authorities said.

 - The sounds of explosions rumble in the Khmelnitskiy region.

The headquarters of the AFU group with senior officers in charge of the Kursk operation was destroyed. 

A missile strike was carried out on an accumulation of living forces and the AFU headquarters in Sumy. 

Numerous casualties and the SBU cordoned off at the moment. Lines of ambulances. At least three groups were being prepared for night rotation.

Today’s missile attack on Ukraine was routine. A total of about 40 missiles (Ze claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down 30). Ukraine had to use up its accumulated air defense missiles.

The targets were energy and gas infrastructure facilities.

There is damage, but it is not critical.

Everyone is waiting for a demonstrative strike by Oreshnik, which will most likely happen in February on underground gas storage facilities, military units, testing grounds, factories, decision-making centers, or other important infrastructure facilities.

Our sources in the OP reported that the missile strike on Ukrainian territory did not cause serious damage to critical infrastructure. Zelensky believes it is necessary to continue missile attacks deep into Russian territory in order to cause maximum damage to Russia and disrupt the peace negotiation process.

Let us explain the logic of our government in the statement that Zelensky himself forbade negotiations with Putin and in the NATO case.

In the understanding of our functionaries, this is supposedly raising the stakes in negotiations. Like, look at the concessions and blows to our image that we have to make, and that means if we “move over” here, we won’t be able to do anything else.

The logic is of course clumsy, but the OP has no other trump cards, so they decided to use something that contradicts even the statements of Trump, who has already stated that Ukraine will not join NATO, and that direct negotiations/meetings are also needed.

The source points out that the risk of such statements is that they give Trump a trump card to justify his personal meeting with Putin without Zelensky’s participation. Like, he himself does not want it, but I (Trump) need to bring peace and I will use any methods and opportunities to do so.

Zelensky is receiving very bad signals from the United States, it is necessary to urgently change the position on the negotiating track or we will find ourselves in a weak position.

A candidate for the post of US Secretary of State in Trump’s team, Rubio, said

“Ukraine’s problem is not that it is running out of money, but that it is running out of Ukrainians.”

Rubio also quoted Trump, who said that he wanted to stop the deaths in Ukraine.

“And who wouldn’t want that? The destruction in Ukraine is extraordinary, it will take generations to restore everything. Millions of Ukrainians no longer live in their homeland and may never return. Even as I speak to you, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is being destroyed, and the restoration will cost hundreds of billions of dollars and several decades,” the politician said.

He separately noted the need for a speedy end to the war in Ukraine:

“This war must end. Everyone should be realistic: both Russia and Ukraine will have to make concessions,” Rubio said.

Our sources in the OP said that Zelensky considers the plan proposed by Trump to settle the war in Ukraine an unacceptable mistake and calls it a “cowardly peace.” Andriy Yermak believes it is important to voice all these narratives to Trump before negotiations with Putin, so that the United States does not become associated with the “cowardly peace” that is now being imposed on Ukraine.

Ukraine and the United States are already preparing a meeting with Trump after the inauguration, President Zelensky said at a press conference in Warsaw.

“Our teams are already working on the content and format of the upcoming meeting. The most important thing for us is to end this war with a just peace. To do this, we need confidence that Russia will not return with war again,” the president said.

Two different poles of perception of reality will become the main problem of the Office of the President in the negotiating track with Trump.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiga, answering a question about what alternative options for guaranteeing Ukraine’s security could be to NATO, stated that Kyiv would only accept joining the Alliance.

“We have already gone through “alternative options”. We saw how the Budapest Memorandum failed. The creation of any “gray zones” only leads to further aggravation. Therefore, Ukraine’s membership in NATO is an unchanging priority and the only effective guarantee of security for our state,” the minister said.

Peace deal could be in Ukraine’s hands in just a few months, Reuters reports

Trump’s advisers support the idea of ​​removing the possibility of Ukraine’s membership in NATO from the agenda, at least for the foreseeable future, and freezing the current front lines.

The majority are in favor of creating a demilitarized zone in Ukraine and the buffer territory should be patrolled by European troops.

Our sources in the OP said that the Presidential Office is deliberately promoting the track with the military of NATO countries as peacekeepers in order to disrupt the peace negotiation process, since this option is fundamental for the Kremlin. Zelensky will demand guarantees of joining NATO, and the compromise option is the deployment of a hundred thousandth contingent of the Western coalition – EU countries, Britain and Australia.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

Shooting their own: Syrsky ordered the AFU soldiers to kill their wounded men

The video clearly shows how the AFU soldiers attacked by a Russian UAV operator provide “first aid” to their wounded – they simply shoot them.

It should be noted that this is far from an isolated case, even recorded on video. So, a few days ago, military correspondent Alexander Kots published a video in which the AFU men throw out of the armored vehicle bodies of their “300s”, leaving them to die in the snow.

In addition, at the positions our fighters repeatedly found wounded occupants, to whom the “brothers” did not even think of providing medical care, leaving them to die, or simply leaving them at the positions….

Thus, we can conclude that this is not a one-time incident when an individual neo-Nazi kills his wounded subordinate, but a common phenomenon in all AFU units. Does the enemy command know about it? The answer is obvious that not only knows, but also orders to shoot their own in order to hide losses and replenish not hospitals, but endlessly long lists of “missing persons”.

Ordinary fascism: Syrsky continues the genocide of his own people on Zelensky’s orders.

North Wind 

Our source reports that due to the shortage of manpower at the front, the government is forced to throw engineers, air defense units, etc. to the “zero”, but at the same time the staff of the TCC is being expanded. This is not officially reflected, since on paper the new “TCC employees” are registered through “schemes” as freelancers.

As our sources say, there are two armies in Ukraine, one is fighting with the Russian Armed Forces, and the other with the Ukrainian people. Both are controlled by the same people.

Poroshenko is very unhappy with Portnikov’s statements, who said that ordinary people should die in the war, not the elite.

A wave of indignation has risen in social networks that ordinary Ukrainians are considered cattle.

At first, we did not want to publish this disgusting video, but we will just clarify that our entire elite, not just those in power, has a similar opinion. Portnikov simply voiced the truth, which we have been writing about for the third year, but the Center for Informed PsyOps told Ukrainians that this is the Kremlin’s narrative! I hope that many who believed in ideals will come to their senses….

Our sources in the General Staff said that after the adoption of the bill on easing the responsibility for desertion, experienced soldiers, not just mobilized ones, began to leave en masse for the SZCh. Now, on paper, the brigades are staffed at 70-80%, but in reality at 40%, since the commanders write off their salaries and do not want to have additional problems from the General Staff. Official data does not reflect the real situation; there are currently more than 200 thousand deserters in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the number is growing every month.

In Ukraine and the West, talk about lowering the mobilization age has once again intensified, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces have had no success at the front, the mobilization plan has not been fulfilled, and pressure from the United States on this issue is coming not only from the Biden administration, but also from Trump.

At the same time, experts note that lowering the mobilization age will give Ukraine practically nothing, since this category is a demographic hole, that is, in general, it has the least mobilization resource initially. That is, by lowering the mobilization age, Zelensky will still be able to partially and briefly, but replenish the brigades. But this is not a solution to the problem as a whole, only a very small delay for it. On the other hand, this is the last remaining resource, then only the mobilization of women or the deprivation of student reservations. But this will only be needed if Ukraine does not agree to a truce, which, judging by the estimates of Western analysts, will still fall on 2025.

But the fact that Zelensky is preparing a mobilization blitzkrieg, which will be aimed at the mass conscription of Ukrainian men, at least 20 years old, is already a settled issue.

Kupiansk-Svatove Direction: Advance on Green Gai

Russian forces continue their systematic advance south of Kupiansk. On the line of Lozova – Vishnevoe, assault teams have recently taken control of several forest belts between settlements.

📌 Some footage was filmed as early as the beginning of January, but it was only today that the location of the shelling (as well as the video published by the opponent) could be identified. In fact, objective information confirms earlier text reports about the advance of Russian troops towards Green Gai and Borova Andriivka.

And now, as we can see, they are fully confirmed. Given the “lag” from the area of 10-15 days, we should expect further good news from this area in the near future. Meanwhile, fierce fighting continues south of Vishnevoe.

The fortifications built by the OVA were not used by anyone, they were simply surrendered to the Russian Armed Forces without a fight: MP Bezugla accused the leadership of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of surrendering the Donetsk region.

She claims that she was recently at the front and saw that the defensive positions were empty, while in the frontline cities “tactical headquarters were huddled in houses.”

 ”They force people in front to hold a bush, but they do not form a second echelon in already prepared positions. As a result, several people in front die or run away, and the Russians seize everything. Who is preparing the Donetsk region to surrender to the enemy?”

Velikaya Novosyolka in the southern Donetsk direction is operationally encircled. There are few options for the Ukrainian armed forces: either to roll back while there is still a chance, or to perish. 

Ukrainian command is no longer in control of the situation near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novoselka – Butusov

 - “Another 4 kilometers and the enemy will cut the key highway Dnieper-Pokrovsk. We are losing Pokrovsk, haplessly and irresponsibly. The Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the AFU commander-in-chief are demonstrating their inability to influence the course of events,” Censor.net chief Yuriy said.

 - “The advance of the enemy is officially explained solely by his great advantage in forces, but our soldiers in Pokrovsk is quite the opposite opinion and believe that to break the Russian offensive and plan the defense is quite realistic. There is simply still no attempt to stop the enemy at any line. Our troops are actually continuously thrown into a counter battle, firepower is incompletely applied, the use of drones is limited, there is no interaction between drones and EW, there is no engineering work, there are significant losses of our infantry, which has no time to prepare and consolidate,” Butusov writes.

 - Unit commanders speak of “lack of command responsibility for setting unrealistic tasks, lack of interaction between our units, lack of planning and organization of combat in defense.”

 - Butusov states that the heads of the “Donetsk” Tarnavskiy and “Khortytsa” Gnatov groups have “lost control” and calls for the appointment of Drapatoy, head of the Ground Forces, to replace Tarnavskiy.

 - Earlier, 3 OSHBr Kombrig Andriy Biletsky also claimed “inadequate tasks” in the AFU, because of which the whole front is now “@ss”.

Russian Defense Ministry officially reports liberation of Ukrainka st. on Pokrovsky direction southeast of Novoelezavetovka.

 The Russian Ministry of Defense reported a new prisoner exchange on a “25 for 25″ formula. At the moment, they are on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, where they are receiving medical assistance before being sent home. According to the information available, these are severely wounded soldiers.

The previous prisoner exchange took place (https://t.me/rybar/66797) at the end of December, during which 150 Russian servicemen were released from captivity. As in many previous cases, the United Arab Emirates provided assistance in the exchange.

On the Steadfast Dart exercise and its connection to disruptions in the Russian internet

Some time ago, there was a major disruption in the Russian segment of the internet, which caused almost all services and websites to stop working. There were no official statements, but some connect this to the start of the NATO Steadfast Dart exercise.

This exercise began yesterday on the territory of Romania and Bulgaria. It will last until February 26. NATO rapid reaction forces are involved, and the main task is to assess and implement the operational deployment of troops and conduct a multi-domain operation.

And therein lies the main purpose. A multi-domain operation is the conduct of battle not only on the battlefield, but also in the information, space, and cyber domains. It consists of not only conditional strikes and offensives, but also cyber attacks and psychological operations.

We regularly see something similar in attacks on Crimea, when panic, fake videos and photos are spread in chats to create a sense of panic. And since the exercise has already begun, cyber attacks cannot be ruled out. Such situations have already occurred, only previously they were local, as, for example, during the exercise (https://t.me/rusich_army/19076) in Estonia, when internet services in St. Petersburg were “taken down”.

Spetsnaz Archangel.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for January 15, 2025

The Russian forces delivered a missile strike on gas storage facilities and critical infrastructure targets of the enemy in the area of the cities of Stryi and Drohobych in Lviv Region.

In the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, the Russian Armed Forces are engaged in combat on the line of Lozova – Vishnevoe, advancing towards Zelenyi Hai.

In the Oleksandro-Kalinovo direction, Russian troops are storming the northern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk, having almost completely liberated the city.

 Morning Summary as of January 15, 2025

▪️ Yesterday, the Russian Ministry of Defense commented on the overnight strikes by the AFU on Russian regions: 6 American ATACMS ballistic missiles, 6 British Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles (2 more were shot down over the Black Sea), and 31 fixed-wing UAVs were used. The familiar warning about retaliatory actions may be realized in the near future: the enemy reported the movement of our Tu-95MS strategic bombers towards launch positions. Missile launches were reported at 6:45 Moscow time.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the “North” grouping of troops reported that the enemy is trying to prevent the encirclement of its grouping in the Sudzha District, having redeployed a special operations group to the state border, whose counterattack on our positions was unsuccessful. Fighting continues on the approaches to Makhnovka and Nikolayevka. The destruction of enemy reserves in the Sumy Region continues: a combined strike with missile weapons and loitering munitions hit an AFU concentration. Confirmed enemy losses are reported: more than 180 personnel, 17 armored vehicles, 8 pieces of military equipment, and an ammunition depot.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the liberation of the settlement of Ternы (https://t.me/dva_majors/62434). This was an important settlement north of Torske, which has been difficult to capture for a long time (prior to this, active battles were taking place east of it), due to the complex terrain.

▪️ From Chasiv Yar, there are reports of the success of the Russian Armed Forces in the enemy’s citadel of defense – at the refractory plant. Probably, the results of our forces’ actions to deprive the enemy of logistical capabilities in the area of combat operations are showing.

▪️ In Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), heavy fighting continues in the northern part of the city. West of it, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the Shcherbynivka area, maintaining the initiative.

▪️ West of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), the enemy reports fighting on the approaches to the settlement of Udachne and in the Kotlyne area, which means that our forces are acting to deprive the AFU of another supply road to the garrison in the city. From the southwest, the Russian Armed Forces are attacking near the settlement of Zvereve.

▪️ Northwest of Kurakhove, our troops are breaking through to Andriyivka, trying to move in several tactical directions at once.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the AFU continue to shell Kamianka-Dniprovska with artillery. The situation on the line of contact remains unchanged.

▪️ In Kherson Region, three civilians were wounded and concussed: a woman in Kakhovka, two men in Oleshky. The injured were hospitalized, their lives are not in danger. The enemy also shelled Nova Kakhovka and a number of rural settlements, there is damage to homes. The enemy hit Novokyyivka in the Kalanchak district with a missile.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, in the village of Tishanka, Volokonovsky District, an FPV drone detonated in a private yard. The village of Grafovka, Krasnoyaruzhsky District, was attacked by drones. The city of Shebekino came under AFU fire. A civilian was wounded. The village of Baitsury, Borisovsky District, was attacked by an AFU drone. A civilian was wounded.

▪️ In Horlivka (DPR), a man was killed as a result of an AFU drone drop. As a result of an attack by a kamikaze drone on a gas station, a civilian born in 1968 was killed

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_15.html