Battle Plans (Offense): Merry Motion & Misdirection!

Motion and Misdirection on Early Downs

The Texans boast a top-10 defense in most standard and advanced metrics, but they’re vulnerable to big plays. They’ve allowed the eighth-most touchdowns this season, including a league-high 28 through the air, as well as 1,876 yards after the catch (sixth-most) and 50 explosive runs (11th-most). The Ravens offense, meanwhile, ranks second with 37 passing TDs and leads the NFL with 77 explosive rushes.

Derrick Henry also demolished the Texans during his time in the AFC South, including a five-game stretch from 2019 to 2022 in which he racked up 1,016 yards and 10 touchdowns. Houston has fared better against Henry under DeMeco Ryans, holding him to 51 yards on 28 attempts, largely without stacking the box and using contain defense instead.

This year, though, the Texans’ 24.5% stacked box rate is eighth-highest, which will likely continue with both Henry and Lamar Jackson in the backfield. However, the Texans run defense is actually worse when using stacked boxes and defending outside the tackles compared to light boxes and inside runs. The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing outside the tackles and against stacked boxes in yards per play, EPA/play, and explosive rushes.

Ryans will have done his homework, so his defense will be prepared to limit big plays. The Ravens should still try to generate them, but this also presents an opportunity for an underrated strength of Todd Monken: his ability to use the threat of his playmakers to open up room elsewhere.

The Texans allowed just 4.7 yards per play against motion entering Week 16, the second-fewest in the NFL, but the Chiefs used plenty of motion in their victory over Houston on Saturday to get their playmakers into open space.

Monken should do the same on Wednesday, tailoring his approach on early downs to avoid the obvious passing situations that the Texans prefer to defend on third down.

Saturday’s win over the Steelers was a masterclass in misdirection, with Monken consistently using motion and play action to pull Pittsburgh one way and move the ball in the opposite direction.

The @Ravens ran it 19 times for 151 yards when using motion at snap vs Pittsburgh. Most they’ve had in a game since 2020 pic.twitter.com/yIlieioW4k

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 23, 2024

He used the threat of Jackson to open up space for Henry, and the threat of Henry to open up passing lanes downfield.

Look familiar? Ravens used similar unbalanced line, fake run/toss concepts on the Devontez Walker touchdown vs. Giants and the opening Isaiah Likely touchdown vs. Steelers. pic.twitter.com/8sVFPoJCAM

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) December 22, 2024

Tempo out of the Huddle to Tackle Over

Fake Toss + Switch Verts pic.twitter.com/La7LStM3hW

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) December 22, 2024

The Ravens’ resurgent screen game will also play a huge role in attacking the Texans’ blitzes and stacked boxes by forcing them to defend sideline to sideline. Monken can mix and match motion, play action, and even fake screens into handoffs to keep Houston guessing.

Run-Pass Synergy on Late Downs

That kind of misdirection will be crucial against an excellent Texans cornerback duo, according to Next Gen Stats:

Kamari Lassiter (32.3%) and Derek Stingley Jr. (34.2%) have allowed the lowest and 2nd-lowest completion percentages when targeted as the nearest defenders in man coverage among cornerbacks with at least 25 such targets faced this season, respectively.

Stingley has been especially impressive, leading that same group of corners with a 24.7 passer rating when targeted in man coverage this season. He and the rest of the Texans defense excel in obvious passing situations, when they roll out man blitzes with single-high safety coverage.

Jackson demolished single-high blitzes against the Steelers, throwing for 163 yards against their 68.0% blitz rate and completing 14 of 18 attempts against single-high safety shells for 193 yards and two touchdowns.

The Texans’ secondary is likely to be more competent than a shorthanded Steelers unit was in Week 16. They try to bait throws downfield so they can make plays on the ball, a boom-or-bust approach that has led to the second-most interceptions (13) and the third-most touchdowns (21) on throws past the sticks this season.

Jackson has taken care of the ball when throwing past the sticks this season with a 29:1 TD:INT ratio. He has been excellent at using his eyes to manipulate second-level defenders and isolate favorable 1-on-1 matchups downfield.

His legs will also play a huge role against a ferocious Texans pass rush. Their pressure rate, sack rate, and average get-off time are all ranked third in the NFL, led by edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Jackson’s ability to escape pressure and avoid sacks has been the most underrated part of his game this year, and he’ll need to be ready to move on Wednesday to limit negative plays.

However, the Texans’ high man-coverage rate on third downs has consistently left them vulnerable to scrambles. They allowed 9.2 yards per scramble (fifth-most) entering Week 16, then gave up 35 yards and a touchdown to Patrick Mahomes on his three scrambles on Saturday.

Jackson needs to take off on Wednesday, especially when the Texans’ man coverage has their defenders’ backs turned. Jackson has done well to scramble on late downs when the Ravens need yards to move the chains, but he should also run a little more on earlier downs to set up easier conversions later on.

But rather than using Jackson’s legs as a primarily defensive mechanism, Monken should force the issue with RPOs, sprintouts, and play action boots into space. Jackson’s rushing ability needs to be an ever-present threat, especially with Azeez Al-Shaair still suspended. Using his legs more intentionally will ensure that the entire offense is on the same page from the snap, creating explosive play opportunities in-structure and off-schedule.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/12/24/ravens-battle-plans/merry-motion-misdirection/