Slicing Into Schedules: A Look at Weeks 10-14 for AFC Playoff Contenders

The first ~half (yeah yeah, 17 weeks now, so let’s not get hung up on the math…) of the season is officially in the books for all 16 AFC teams.  In this article, I break down the schedule for the next five weeks for all teams that I think have some hope for a playoff run. (Sorry Dolphins, Jets, Titans, Browns, and Raiders). I have listed them by their current seeding if the season were to end today.

Current #1 Seed (AFC South Leader)

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

Week 10:  vs Atlanta Falcons

Week 11:  BYE

Week 12:  at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 13:  vs. Houston Texans

Week 14:  at Jacksonville Jaguars

I kept waiting for the Colts to fall flat on their face, and unfortunately it happened against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers’ defense totally destroyed the Colts, forcing six turnovers.

Week 10 the Colts host a very up-and-down Atlanta Falcons team.  Then, they have a Week 11 bye before an extremely tough road test against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.  In Week 13, the division rival Houston Texans, who have been playing much better recently, come to town.  Week 14 is another key division game, this time on the road at Jacksonville.  The question for the Colts is whether the Steelers’ game was one fluke bad game where everything went wrong, or a sign of things to come.  I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.  I don’t think the Colts are the dominant team they were in the first eight weeks, but I think they are a solid team that will pretty easily win their division.

Current # 2 Seed:  (AFC East Leader)

New England Patriots (7-2)

Week 10:  at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 11:  vs. New York Jets

Week 12:  at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 13: vs. New York Giants

Week 14:  BYE

I know the Patriots haven’t faced a gauntlet of a schedule, but they impressively won their biggest test Week 5 at Buffalo and have now rolled off a total of six straight victories to hold the AFC East lead.

In Week 10, they travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are hoping to get healthy over their Week 9 bye.  This should be a great test for this Patriots team.  Week 11 they host the horrible New York Jets in a game they should win.  Week 12, they go on the road to face the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals are inconsistent, but you know Joe Flacco will sling it to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in what could be a thrilling game.  Week 13, the Patriots are home against the New York Giants in another game they should win easily.  The Patriots then get a Week 14 bye to gear up for the final stretch where they hope to challenge the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East title!  With the combination of how they are playing and their schedule, the Patriots will definitely be a playoff team and they have a legitimate shot to steal the division title from the Bills.

Current #3 Seed:  (AFC West Leader)

Denver Broncos (7-2)

Week 10:  vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Week 11:  vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Week 12: BYE

Week 13:  at Washington Commanders

Week 14:  at Las Vegas Raiders

Even though the Broncos have looked inconsistent at times (for example, barely beating the Jets in a low-scoring game in London Week 6), they have now rolled off six straight victories to maintain their lead in the AFC West.

Week 10 they host division foe Las Vegas Raiders in a game they should win.  Week 11 they host the Kansas City Chiefs, which is likely to be a game for control of the division.  Following their showdown with the Chiefs, the Broncos get a late Week 12 bye.  Week 13 they travel to the Washington Commanders, who have been a major disappointment, and I can’t see the Commanders being competitive without Jayden Daniels.  Week 14 they play the Raiders again, this time on the road, in a game they can’t afford to lose if they want to keep pace with the Chiefs in the division.  I think the Chiefs are a better team than the Broncos, but the Broncos have a legitimate shot to stay in pole position for the AFC West title.

Current #4 Seed:  (AFC North Leader)

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Week 10:  at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 11:  vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Week 12: at Chicago Bears

Week 13:  vs. Buffalo Bills

Week 14:  at Baltimore Ravens

The Steelers came back to the pack just a little bit with back-to-back losses to the Bengals in Packers in Weeks 7 and 8.  But, they then responded with a huge win against the Colts in Week 9.  The Steelers’ defense came to life and completely dominated the Colts, including forcing six turnovers to help the Steelers maintain a two-game lead in the AFC North.

Week 10, the Steelers go on the road to face the Los Angeles Chargers.  After the performance by the Steelers defense, particularly the front 7, this looks to be another game the Steelers may dominate defensively.  The Chargers lost tackle Joe Alt, who has made a big difference for them, to an ankle injury, which is bad news with T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and the Steelers coming to town.  I think the Steelers will overpower the Chargers offensive line.  In Week 11, the Steelers try to get revenge as they host the Cincinnati Bengals in a critical AFC North matchup.  It’s hard to see the Steelers dropping another one to the Bengals, especially with how poorly the Bengals defense has played.  Week 13 the Steelers host the Buffalo Bills in a very touch matchup.  This is definitely a game Ravens fans should be watching as they really need the Steelers to drop this one!  Week 14 the Steelers travel to Baltimore.  If the Steelers win that one, they could really put a hurt on the Ravens’ chances of catching them in the division. 

Current #5 Seed:  (1^st Wild Card)

Buffalo Bills (6-2)

Week 10:  at Miami Dolphins

Week 11:  vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 12:  at Houston Texans

Week 13:  at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 14:  vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills surprisingly dropped two straight in Weeks 5 and 6 against the Patriots and Falcons. But, after the Week 7 bye, they destroyed the Panthers Week 8 and won a key matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs Week 9.

Week 10, the Bills travel to Miami in a game they should win easily.  The Dolphins appear to have quit, and have started selling, trading Jalen Phillips to the Eagles.  Week 11 the Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Bucs will be coming off a much-needed Week 9 bye and hope to get healthy.  If the Bucs are relatively healthy, this could be a fun, competitive game with Josh Allen against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.  Week 12, the Bills travel to face the Houston Texans, who have a great defense.  Week 13 is a crucial road matchup on the road in Pittsburgh.  Ravens fans will definitely be rooting for the Bills in this one!  Week 14, the Bills host the Cincinnati Bengals.

Current #6 Seed:  (2^nd Wild Card)

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Week 10:  vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 11:  at Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 12:  BYE

Week 13:  vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Week 14:  vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Chargers have been battling through injuries while trying to stay competitive.  They managed to go 3-2 in their last five games, losing to the Commanders and Colts, and beating the Dolphins, Vikings, and Titans.

Week 10, they host the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Unfortunately, tackle Joe Alt will be out with an ankle injury, and I think that spells disaster, as I mentioned above.  Week 11 they have a road game at the surprising Jacksonville Jaguars.  This is almost a must-win for the Chargers if they want to try to stay alive in this division.  They get a Week 12 bye, then host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13.  Week 14, they host the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.  This is a tough stretch for the Chargers and will show if they have what it takes to stay in playoff contention.

Current #7 Seed:  (3^rd Wild Card)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

Week 10:  at Houston Texans

Week 11: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Week 12:  at Arizona Cardinals

Week 13:  at Tennessee Titans

Week 14:  vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars shocked the world in Week 5 with a huge win over the Chiefs, leading people to think that they were legitimate contender.  However, they were slammed back to reality with back-to-back losses to the Seahawks and Rams.  In Week 9, it wasn’t pretty, but they got a much needed win at the Las Vegas Raiders.

In Week 10, the Jaguars travel to division rival Houston Texans in a key division game.  The big question here is if Texans QB C.J. Stroud will be able to play after being knocked out of Week 9 and placed in concussion protocol.  Week 11 they host the up-and-down Los Angeles Chargers in what could be a huge battle in the AFC Wild Card race.  Week 12 they travel to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals in a game they should win.  Week 13 they travel to the Tennessee Titans in another game they should win.  Week 14 is a tough home game with the division-leading Indianapolis Colts.  If the Jaguars can manage to win three of these five games, they will be in the thick of the AFC playoff race.

Current #8 Seed (out of playoffs)

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

Week 10: BYE

Week 11: at Denver Broncos

Week 12: vs. Indianapolis Colts

Week 13:  at Dallas Cowboys

Week 14:  vs. Houston Texans

After a surprising loss in prime time Week 5 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chiefs found their stride, winning three straight in Weeks 6-8 vs. the Lions, Raiders, and Commanders.  In Week 9, they lost the battle on the road at the Buffalo Bills.  I still think they are the team to beat in the AFC, but they must continue to play well if they want to win the AFC West.

The Chiefs get a Week 10 bye before a huge AFC West road game at the Denver Broncos Week 11.  Week 12 is another tough test as they host the Indianapolis Colts.  Week 13 the travel to Big D to face the inconstant Dallas Cowboys.  Week 14 they host the Houston Texans, who are capable pulling an upset.

Bottom line:  I think the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, but they will be tested and will need to prove it if they want to win their division.

Current #9 Seed (out of playoffs)

Houston Texans (3-5)

Week 10: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 11:  at Tennessee Titans

Week 12: vs. Buffalo Bills

Week 13:  at Indianapolis Colts

Week 14:  at Kansas City Chiefs

The Texans were 1-3 at the time of my last “Slicing Into Schedules” article, so they weren’t even included.  I thought they were dead and buried, even after they dismantled a Baltimore Ravens team playing without Lamar Jackson and several key defensive players. After their Week 6 bye, the lost to the Seattle Seahawks and I honestly thought they could be written off for good.  But, then they bounced back with a huge win against the San Francisco 49ers.  Week 9 they had a tough break after QB C.J. Stroud was knocked out of the game and placed into concussion protocol after what I thought was a dirty hit by the Denver Broncos.  The Texans hung tough but lost 18-15 to fall to 3-5.

In Week 10, they host fellow AFC South and playoff contender Jacksonville Jaguars.  Their defense is capable of keeping them in the game, even if C.J. Stroud is unable to play.  Week 11 they travel to face the Tennessee Titans in a game they should win.  Weeks 12, 13, and 14 they face a gauntlet of a schedule:  home vs. Buffalo, at Indianapolis, and at Kansas City.  With this challenging schedule and their 3-5 record, I think the Texans have dug themselves too big of hole to be legitimate playoff contenders.

Current #10 Seed (out of playoffs)

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Week 10:  at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1:00 Eastern)

Week 11:  at Cleveland Browns (Sunday 4:25 Eastern)

Week 12:  vs. New York Jets (Sunday 1:00)

Week 13:  vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Thanksgiving night)

Week 14:  home vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Weeks 5 and 6 were rough for the Ravens.  Without Lamar Jackson, this team looked helpless….A key trade by Eric DeCosta to pick up Safety Alohi Gilman seemed to rejuvenate the defense.  Tyler Huntley came through with a much needed W vs. the Bears in Week 8 to keep hopes alive.  In Week 9, the Ravens welcomed back Jackson.  After a slow start, they took care of business on the road against a bad Miami Dolphins team.

After the Thursday night game Week 9 at Miami, the Ravens get the “mini-bye” before traveling to Minnesota to play the Minnesota Vikings.  Hopefully, the mini-bye helps Jackson get fully healthy for the stretch run.  The Vikings struggled with QB Carson Wentz under center, but in Week 9, QB J.J. McCarthy came back and led the team to an impressive road victory in Detroit.  The Ravens will definitely need to bring their A game and can’t afford another slow start like they had against the Dolphins.  Week 11, the Ravens travel to the Cleveland Browns.  We all know the Browns are not a good team, but division games are always tough and Myles Garrett can single-handedly take over a game, especially against the Ravens’ suspect offensive line.  Week 12 is a home game against the New York Jets that the Ravens must win if they want any hope to be in playoff contention.  Week 13, the Ravens host the Cincinnati  Bengals in prime time on Thanksgiving night in a huge AFC North contest against old friend Joe Flacco. The Ravens then get a few extra days rest before another huge AFC North contest hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, December 7.

Current #11 Seed (out of playoffs)

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

Week 10:  Bye

Week 11:  at Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 12: vs. New England Patriots

Week 13:  at Baltimore Ravens (Thanksgiving night)

Week 14:  at Buffalo Bills

No doubt Joe Flacco has rejuvenated this juggernaut Cincinnati Bengals offense!  Unfortunately for the Bengals, their defense is horrible, blowing a lead to the lowly New York Jets Week 8 and spoiling what was an epic comeback in Week 9 against the Bears!

The Bengals get the Week 10 bye, then face a gauntlet of a schedule the next four games.  Week 11 they are on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  For Ravens fans, let’s hope the bye will help them come up with some answers defensively to stop the Steelers.  Then, in Week 12 they host the surprising 7-2 New England Patriots.  Week 13 of course they travel to Baltimore for a primetime Thanksgiving night game.  After a few extra days off, they have another very tough road game in Buffalo .  The Bengals are a very dangerous team with an incredibly explosive offense, but I don’t think they can be taken seriously as legitimate contenders due to their absolutely putrid defense.

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