Chicago Cubs rotation is “deep in meh and unexcitement” says brutal ZiPS projection

The Chicago Cubs made headlines when they pulled the trigger on the trade they had been tied to since last trade deadline. The deal to acquire Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins cost the team their no. 1 prospect Owen Caissie and two other solid young talents, but most everyone agreed that the price was worth paying.

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By most accounts, the hard-throwing 27-year-old righty is an emerging powerhouse starter who turned the corner on his progress last season. In acquiring him, they also got three years of team control at a discount price until he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2028 season.

Now, the Cubs get to drop Cabrera into a starting rotation that also includes Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, and Shota Imanaga, with injured ace Justin Steele possibly making his comeback before the All-Star break.

All good news, right?

Not exactly.

Cubs starting rotation gets ugly ZiPS projection

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A prominent MLB projection system doesn’t think all that highly of a starting rotation that’s generating widespread enthusiasm among Cubs fans.

The well-respected ZiPS is not convinced by the starting staff put together by Jed Hoyer and the front office, describing the admittedly deep rotation as also being “deep in meh.”

The Cubs’ rotation is projected to have just a combined 11.2 WAR next season, ranking them 19th in the league in starting pitching.

Dan Szymborski, the developer of the computer-based ZiPS projection system, elaborated on the projection of mediocrity:

“ZiPS sees the Cubs as having a very deep rotation that’s also very deep in unexcitement. There’s certainly some upside here, especially in Edward Cabrera, but ZiPS largely views the team as having a whole lot of broadly average starting pitching options. The good news here is that if Justin Steele has any setbacks, ZiPS likes the team’s replacement options. Even with especially bad luck in the injury department, the computer thinks Javier Assad will be adequate — it has him with an ERA considerably lower than his FIP, though some of that is thanks to the stellar Cubs defense — and that Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks would both be far more acceptable as starters if called into duty than they’ve shown so far. Heck, if Colin Rea or even Connor Noland were forced into starting some games, that wouldn’t be an apocalyptic scenario for the Cubs.”

Nearly the same or worse next season

Specifically, ZiPS sees Boyd and Horton falling somewhat flat next year, down slightly in WAR in 2026 (down .1 for Boyd and .3 for Horton). Imanaga and Taillon, meanwhile, are projected to achieve minor gains over last season ( up .4 WAR for Imanaga and .2 WAR for Taillon). Cabrera is projected to finish the season with a 1.9 WAR, which would place his impact on the team somewhere between what Boyd and Imanaga had in 2025. The projection system gives the returning Steele a 1.5 WAR, despite not knowing exactly when he might actually pitch.

But…

Being projected as a bottom-half starting rotation (along with the projection of a middle-of-the-pack bullpen) is not great news.

It should be taken into consideration, however, that this Cubs staff has a lot of intangibles swirling around it. Imanaga could conceivably have a nice rebound after a rough second half of 2025. Nobody is quite sure when Steele will return to full-time duty. Cabrera’s ability to perform in a new city under a new system is still an unknown factor.

There’s also the uncertainty surrounding a rotation full of durability and injury issues. A full year of a healthy Horton, for example, would make a major impact, even if his rookie year performance over the second half of the season proves to be an outlier run.

Overall, though, it’s just hard to look at the Cubs rotation, one through five, extending to Steele (with Colin Rea and Javier Assad as backups), and see extreme “meh.” We shall see.

The post Chicago Cubs rotation is “deep in meh and unexcitement” says brutal ZiPS projection appeared first on ChiCitySports.

Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-starting-rotation-projection-cabrera-imanaga-steele-horton-2026