Prediction markets favoring Billy Donovan for this top college job

The Chicago Bulls are officially eliminated from playoff contention this season and with seven games left, the focus shifts to the offseason. Chicago is currently ninth in the NBA draft lottery with a 20.4 percent chance to get into the top four.

With this being considered a loaded draft, it’s a great opportunity for the Bulls to land a potential future star. But the future of head coach Billy Donovan is up in the air as well.

Reports last week surfaced that Donovan could resign at the end of this season. Then days later, Donovan was connected to the open North Carolina job. That momentum continues to pick up as well.

Billy Donovan is the better favorite on prediction markets for UNC job

As North Carolina’s coach search rolls on, we do know that Donovan’s name has been brought up in connection with the job. North Carolina has been pretty quiet but the top two candidates are rumored to be Michigan’s Dusty May and Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd. As both are going to the Final Four, UNC will have to wait a bit.

But for Donovan, they may not have to wait long. Depending on who you ask, there’s belief that Donovan would take the job if offered. Prediction markets are leaning towards Donovan as the favorite.

As of right now, when this is being published, Donovan is at 32 percent chance on Kalshi, “North Carolina Basketball – Next Head Coach” prediction. Oddly enough, Rick Pitino is second at 29 percent along with Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd.

Now, this is just a prediction market and as The Athletic writes, here’s why it’s interesting:

We’re talking about Kalshi because prediction markets are open to more speculative topics than their highly regulated cousins, sportsbooks, which are often precluded, or even reluctant, from offering markets that are so vulnerable to insider information.

Traditional sportsbooks don’t usually offer odds on speculative storylines or on what group chats are discussing, such as who will be a team’s next coach or where a player will be traded, whereas prediction markets tend to target exactly those topics. Whether they are accurate is more of an open question. (And also opens up a philosophical debate of the meaning of “accurate,” i.e., they are “accurate” about what people think is going to happen, but may not be accurate on the final result.)

It doesn’t mean that Donovan will be the head coach. It could change as the money comes in on the site as well. But it is notable that Donovan is leading the way here with this market.

This storyline will be something to watch the rest of the offseason.

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