Sadiq in the First? Recent TE History Says Buyer Beware

One of the players most linked to the Ravens at pick 14 of late has been Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq.

The good: he is a top athlete at the position; according to NFL Draft Buzz, he is 100^th percentile in the forty (4.39), vertical (43.5″) and broad jump (133″). All three, among the very best ever, is he. Sadiq is also very young (21) in a draft class full of older prospects.

The rest: he is not a large TE; he is 21^st percentile in height (6’3″), 15^th percentile in weight (241), and 14^th percentile in arm length (31.5″). He was also moderately successful in college. In three seasons, 42 games, he accrued 80 catches for 892 yards and 11 TD. His last season netted 51 catches for 560 yards and 8 TD.

The story of tight ends drafted in Round 1 during our previous head coach’s tenure is shaky:

To be fair, this list is trending for the better lately, and if Sadiq follows this new trend it would be a good pick for Baltimore.  The fact remains that if you combine all thirteen of these players, you have a grand total of one (1) All Pro team (Brock Bowers in 2024). The general career pattern of these TE is that of a fairly good player that makes a couple Pro Bowls and then flames out.

Consider Eric Ebron. According to NFL.com, Ebron was the highest TE in Production Score (89), and second in Athleticism Score (80) in the 2014 draft. He was a 21-year-old rookie. He was considered by some the best TE prospect since Vernon Davis. He wasn’t as athletic as Sadiq is today (because nobody is) but his profile was similar and his production was better.  How did he do? He was alright. He made a Pro Bowl in 2018. If 2014 were redrafted, he’d be a mid-to-late second round pick.

Consider Kyle Pitts, the highest drafted TE in NFL history. He checked every box, and was also 21.  His career is far from over – provided health of course – yet his narrative is that of a player that hasn’t lived up to his potential. He’s averaged three touchdowns a year over five years. The Falcons franchised Pitts a month ago, and amid contract talks, GM Ian Cunningham did not rule out a trade, prompting all sorts of speculation.

If Sadiq becomes the next Vernon Davis, that would be great… but of the best TEs of the first quarter-century (Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Greg Olsen, Zach Ertz, even Mark Andrews) only Olsen was a first round pick. On the other hand… Gronkowski, Kelce, Witten, Graham, Ertz and Andrews were all day two picks. So was the current best TE in the league, Trey McBride.

I’m not saying Sadiq is guaranteed to disappoint; I’m just giving a little “buyer beware” based on history.  TE is usually ranked near the bottom among positional hit rate studies. The worst, incidentally, is WR.

The best? That’s usually offensive line.

All this is to say, Sadiq probably won’t be at the top of my personal draft board once pick 14 is actually on the clock.

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