The NBA’s New 3-2-1 Lottery: What It Changes for Rebuilding Teams Like the Bulls

Last spring, the Chicago Bulls went into the draft lottery with a 4.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and came out with No. 4, which they used on Caleb Wilson. The NBA changed the lottery rules in late May, and the 2026-27 season is the first one that counts under the new system. For a young team like the Bulls, these rules change how a rebuild should work.

The change also matters to people who bet on the NBA. Late in the season, it has often been difficult to tell how hard a struggling team will push for a win. In Romania, where the NBA draws more basketball betting interest than any other league, many bettors build a ticket of the day, a single bet slip with a few picks from that day’s games, and a bottom team that sits its best players can ruin the whole slip. The new lottery gives teams much less reason to put draft position ahead of winning, so those late-season games should be easier to read.

The 3-2-1 Lottery at a Glance

The NBA Board of Governors approved the format by a 29-1 vote. It covers the 2027, 2028 and 2029 drafts. The key rules:

•     16 teams in the draw instead of 14. That includes the two losers of the 7-vs-8 Play-In games, who can still reach the playoffs.
•     Three, two or one ball per team. Three go to clubs that miss both the playoffs and the Play-In, two to the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds, one to the losers of the 7-vs-8 games.
•     Draft relegation. The three worst records each lose a ball and drop to two.
•     Every lottery slot is drawn. The first 16 picks of the first round come out of the machine, while the old system drew only the top four.
•     Streak limits. A team’s own first-rounder cannot land No. 1 in back-to-back drafts or in the top five three years in a row, no matter which club holds it.
•     No mid-lottery protections. Newly traded picks cannot carry top-12 through top-15 protection.
•     Stronger discipline. The league can cut lottery odds, move a team’s draft position and issue significant fines.

How the Odds Change

Under the previous format, the three worst teams each held a 14% chance at No. 1, and everything after the first four slots followed the standings. The new draw spreads the chances more evenly and moves the best odds from the very bottom to the next group of losing teams.

Finish	No. 1 odds	Top-3 odds	Top-10 odds	Lowest possible slot
Three worst records	5.4%	16%	61%	No. 12
Other teams outside the Play-In	8.1%	24%	73%	No. 16
No. 9 and No. 10 seeds	5.4%	16%	59%	No. 16
Losers of 7-vs-8 games	2.7%	8%	35%	No. 16

League executive Evan Wasch, who led the reform effort, noted that the bottom 10 teams still control roughly 73% of the odds. The system keeps helping weak clubs, but it stops handing the biggest prize to the weakest one. For a franchise that expects a losing season, the target shifts from last place to the middle of the bottom ten.

Why Draft Relegation Removes the Reward for Losing

Of all the changes, relegation hits front offices planning a teardown the hardest. A franchise that sinks to one of the three worst records ends up with fewer ping-pong balls than a club that won a handful of extra games, and its only consolation is a floor at No. 12.

The league had tried penalties first. In February, the NBA fined Utah $500,000 and Indiana $100,000 for keeping available players out of games. Fines alone could not fix the incentive, because a top selection can be worth far more than any penalty. NBA executive James Jones made that argument directly: a team chasing a franchise-changing prospect might simply absorb the fine. Relegation removes the prize itself, which a fine can never do.

What It Means for the Bulls’ Rebuild

Chicago makes a useful test case because it sits exactly where the new rules bite: a young roster, a new front office led by Bryson Graham, a new coach in Tiago Splitter, and a recent history of finishes in the middle of the pack. Four points stand out:

•     Last season’s record would look better on lottery night. The Bulls went 31-51 but stayed out of the bottom three. Under the new tiers, that finish lands in the three-ball group with an 8.1% shot at No. 1, well above the 4.5% they held under the old format.
•     The streak rule is already in play. Chicago picked 12th in 2025 and fourth in 2026. If its own selection reaches the top five again in 2027, the 2028 pick cannot, because recent drafts count toward the three-year limit.
•     Playing time for prospects no longer clashes with draft odds. Splitter can give heavy minutes to Wilson, Matas Buzelis, Dailyn Swain and Noa Essengue without the organization weighing every win against its lottery position.
•     Trade talks lose a familiar tool. Graham cannot attach top-12 to top-15 protection to a newly traded first-rounder, a common way for sellers to limit their risk.

The old structure pushed teams like Chicago into an awkward spot: too good to earn top odds, too thin to contend. That spot is now the most valuable place in the draw. A young team that competes every night, collects its share of wins and still misses the Play-In receives the best odds in the lottery. For a rebuild centered on development rather than losing, that alignment makes the plan easier to sell to players, coaches and fans.

The Play-In Problem

The reform has a weak spot, and it sits where the Bulls spent three straight seasons before last year: the Play-In Tournament. The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds receive two balls, fewer than the teams just below them. The losers of the 7-vs-8 games get one ball plus a second shot at the playoffs, while the winners take the No. 7 seed and no lottery odds at all.

Analysts, including Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Connor, have pointed to the incentives this creates:

•     an 11th seed has little reason to climb into the No. 10 spot in the final weeks;
•     a No. 9 or No. 10 seed would hold better odds by missing the Play-In entirely;
•     a team could come out ahead by losing its 7-vs-8 game, since it keeps a path to the playoffs and gains a lottery ball.

O’Connor described the risk as a possible “race to the middle.” The league chose to answer it with disciplinary power rather than more formulas, so how often and how strictly the commissioner uses that authority will decide whether the loophole stays theoretical.

Will the New Lottery Stop Tanking?

The league itself treats the format as a trial. It expires after the 2029 draft, and the Board of Governors will vote again on what replaces it. Several front offices have pitched a draft-credit model, in which teams would bid for slots with league-issued credits instead of relying on their record.

Picks traded before the reform raise another concern. Memphis, the only team to vote against the plan, owns Utah’s 2027 first-rounder. Because the Jazz picked fifth in 2025 and second in 2026, the streak rule now keeps that pick out of the top five, a restriction nobody could have priced in when the deal was made. Some executives have become cautious about trading picks beyond 2029 until a permanent system is in place.

Even with those flaws, the reform changes what a rebuilding team should aim for in March. By pulling the best odds away from the very bottom, the league built a deterrent that works through the numbers rather than through anyone’s goodwill.

What to Watch as the First Season Unfolds

The real test arrives in the second half of the season, when non-contenders usually start resting veterans and extending minutes for prospects. Three things deserve attention: how the bottom three teams separate from the pack, whether clubs near the No. 10 seed keep playing their best players in April, and how the league handles its first suspicious case.

For Chicago, success under the new rules looks different from success under the old ones. Steady growth from Wilson and Buzelis, a competitive record and three balls in the draw would put the Bulls in the strongest position the system allows when the first 3-2-1 lottery takes place in May 2027.

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