Four Downs: Any Answers for Lamar in Texans’ Stockings?

The Baltimore Ravens are going to Houston for the holidays, and there’s no place like Houston for the holidays. If you want to win in a million ways, for the holidays, here’s your four downs for Ravens vs. Texans.

First Down: Protect the MVP

One thing the Houston Texans do well is get after the quarterback. The Texans pass rush is led by former Minnesota Viking Danielle Hunter and by the young Will Anderson. Hunter has 12.5 sacks on the year while Anderson has 10.5. Anderson was a limited participant in practice and didn’t play against the Kansas City Chiefs last Saturday, so if the Ravens see Anderson, they won’t be facing him at 100 percent. Pass protection will be key either way because the Texans are not a two-man operation on defense. Statistically speaking, the Texans have the fourth best defense in the NFL. Nothing is going to be easy and the Ravens will need Lamar Jackson to play at a fully MVP level to win this game. It all starts with protecting the passer.

The Ravens allowed seven sacks in the last three games, but only one of those came against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ronnie Stanley is coming off a rough day and Jackson’s elusiveness was tested more than the numbers would indicate. The biggest way to get in trouble in this game is to take sacks and get behind the sticks. Things have to stay on script for the offense because the Texans are aggressive on passing downs and their crowd will play a factor in the game. A key number is three sacks. If Jackson escapes the game at just one or two sacks, that’s a good sign for the Ravens. Three or more sacks probably means the Texans have the Ravens right where they want them and it rolls downhill.

Second Down: Jackson Could be Their Kryptonite

The Texans opened last season with a showdown against the Ravens, and that season ended for them with a loss in Baltimore, with the Ravens defeating them in the Divisional round by a score of 34-10. Jackson threw for 152 yards, ran for 100 and scored two touchdowns in the air and two on the ground. The Texans didn’t have an answer for Jackson. Baltimore ran 67 plays and held the ball for almost 38 minutes of the game. It was like a game of keep away and C.J. Stroud had to be perfect to even keep up with the Ravens.

The good news for the Texans is that this is a different season. While the Texans felt like they were a year away from being real contenders last season, this year sees them as a fully actualized threat. This is the first time the Ravens will face this iteration of the Texans in Houston with DeMeco Ryans as their coach. The Texans have to hope that a home game makes things easier for them, but they also need answers they didn’t have a year ago. In two games against the Texans last season, Jackson accounted for five touchdowns and 459 total yards. Houston will need a brand new strategy to be successful in this holiday battle.

The bad news for the Texans is that this season they also have to find a way to slow down Derrick Henry. Henry is coming off a 162-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Steelers and he accomplished that with just 24 carries. The Ravens are averaging just over 30 points per game and Jackson is hovering around the best passer rating record for a season. It’s a new year but the problems they had with Jackson didn’t get any easier for them.

Third Down: The Impact of the Short Week

There is no doubting that the short week impacts both teams, yet the Ravens are in the better situation. Baltimore is coming off a celebratory win against their biggest rivals. The momentum of that game and the huge opportunity the win created (a chance to win the AFC North) will carry them into the Christmas game. It felt like the kind of win that propels a talented team like this to their most self-actualized form. The Ravens just showed they can step up in the big moment while the Texans got a gut punch from the defending champion Chiefs. The Texans had a chance for a statement win and they came up short. These are the types of games where you can experience a bit of a hangover the next game and in this case the next game is just four days later.

The Texans had three players who did not participate in practice Monday including two of their offensive linemen, Shaq Mason, and Juice Scruggs. The Texans lost Tank Dell for the season with a brutal knee injury against the Chiefs. It’s the last thing you want to see in football and its likely still an emotional situation for the Texans. The Texans offense lost a key part of their attack. It’s hard to replace a number two receiver who had 51 receptions and nearly 700 yards on the year. The Texans lost a part of their offense that was central to their entire game plan and now must lean on Nico Collins even more than they already do. The Texans passing attack has been so varied and so spread out all over the field that they’ve been hard to stop. This could put a real hitch in things for the offense.

It’s important to not put too much stock into the injury reports this week because the game is scrunched together with their Saturday game. Still, you would have to think momentum and situation favor the Ravens. If the Steelers lose to the Chiefs in the first Christmas day game the Ravens will probably have an extra layer of motivation.

4th Down: Stroud Will Take What You Give Him (Caution)

The one thing that decides this game is which offense controls the ball for longer. The Ravens have a bit of a bend but don’t break defensive strategy that allows the opponent to nickel and dime them down the field. It works if the opponent’s drives don’t end in touchdowns and you create a turnover or two. The Ravens need to realize how lucky they were on Saturday that Russell Wilson fumbled near the goal line. The Steelers mounted some serious drives against them but turnovers were the difference.

The Ravens should be more aggressive on defense in this game. This isn’t the game to allow death from a thousand cuts. The Texans offense has a chance to take advantage of the off and soft zone coverage the Ravens like to utilize, especially over the middle of the field. Remember, the Ravens just gave up five receptions for 44 yards to Jaylen Warren… what do you think Joe Mixon can do?

Time of possession is going to be a sneaky statistic in this game. Stroud is comfortable taking what the defense gives him. He’s going to look at the very Dean Pees-inspired Zach Orr defense as an opportunity to play surgeon. If the Ravens don’t attack the receivers at the line of scrimmage and try to get after Stroud to make him hold the ball a little longer and run from the pocket it’s going to be a repetitive day of chasing Texans receivers and watching Stroud’s completion percentage soar. The Ravens have to come into this game with more blitzes and simulated pressures. The defense needs to try to be the reason the Ravens win the game – turnovers are always a good part of that.

Merry Christmas Baltimore.

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