Could Another All-Pro Fall to 14? ’26 Draft Class Eerily Similar to ’22

The 2026 NFL Draft class is going to be underrated.  This is because it’s a weak quarterback class.  Fernando Mendoza is going to be the first pick and that’s fine, but time will tell whether he ends up more like Drew Brees or more like Chad Pennington.  Since the QB position is so important, we’re not going to get too many MVPs out of this class unless Tom Brady Jr. appears. However, calling the class weak solely due to the lack of star QB power somewhat ignores the strength of other positions.

The 2022 Draft was similar.  Looking back, there were a lot of early hits:  Aidan Hutchinson, Derek Stingley Jr., Sauce Gardner, Drake London, Charles Cross, and Garrett Wilson were all top ten picks.  The only real bust in the top ten was Giants OL Evan Neal at seven.  None of the top ten picks were quarterbacks.  In fact, no QB was selected until pick 20, when Pittsburgh took Kenny Pickett.  So far, the best QB in the draft by far is the Brady-ish selection of Brock Purdy as Mr. Irrelevant.

The Baltimore Ravens picked 14^th in that draft, and got a gift named Kyle Hamilton.  The Baltimore Ravens are picking 14^th in this year’s draft.

Why did Hamilton fall?  There are two main reasons:  positional value and speed.  Hamilton plays safety, and teams foolishly thought that meant he was a standard safety, which is less valuable than a cornerback.  As we see, he’s not exactly lining up at saftety all the time in Baltimore.  The other reason is he ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and reportedly a slower time at his Pro-Day.  Never mind he was a huge DB with great instincts and football IQ – he was a slow safety and some draft people questioned whether he was going to be a top ten pick. Fortunately for Baltimore, those folks were ultimately right.

This year’s draft has the potential to see a Hamilton-esque slide to 14.  There are a number of blue chip prospects that play at non-premium positions, and the Combine is very likely going to shake things up a bit.

The first possibility is Ohio St LB Arvell Reese.  There’s a very slim chance he falls out of the top ten, as there are rumblings he’ll go as high as pick #2 to the Jets.  He’s still listed at off-ball LB.  Teams should now be wised-up to a prospect that resembles Micah Parsons on tape, as Parsons himself was not a top ten pick, going 12^th in the 2021 draft.  That draft did happen to have four quarterbacsks drafted ahead of him, but still, he’s obviously going top five in everybody’s redraft.

Next we have his teammate, Ohio State S Caleb Downs.  It’s a little more likely that he drops, and we point to the safety problem again.  Ravens fans may have conniptions envisioning another safety drafted this high, but are we complaining about Hamilton?  No.  Jesse Minter would have the opportunity to create a base 3-S defense the NFL has never seen before.  Maybe Hamilton is listed at LB; the semantics doesn’t really matter.

Moving to an even more likely scenario, we have the WR class.  The Ravens have invested a lot of draft capital into the position under GM Eric DeCosta, including three 1^st round picks (Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, & Zay Flowers).  That said, we have two top-level prospects this year in Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) and Carnell Tate (Ohio State), as well as a first round wild card in Makai Lemon (USC).  I happen to like Tate best, but he comes with a question mark, as he played opposite Jeremiah Smith.  Not many WR2s in college end up WR1s in the NFL, though it’s not unheard of (examples include D.K. Metcalf and Chris Olave).  The thing is, WR is a sexy position and always seems to get drafted early.  I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of these guys are off the board at pick 14.

I see two players as being most likely to be this year’s version of Hamilton. One is Hamilton’s fellow Irish, RB Jeremiyah Love, and the reason is simple: he’s a running back.  If you think Ravens fans would tear their hair out over another safety, imagine if Roger Goddell goes to the podium and says this guy’s name.  Regardless, Love is a prospect right there with the other top picks in recent years like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Ashton Jeanty, and is most often comped to Gibbs.  The elephant in the room of course is Derrick Henry, so selecting Love would be more about 2027 and beyond.  Perhaps if Love falls to pick 14, the Ravens can engineer a trade down, maybe even for a future first-round pick.  They did that once a long time ago and it netted them Jamal Lewis the following year.

The other player most likely to fall plays a position of need for the Ravens and has a trait that people don’t like, a la Hamilton.  That would be Miami (FL) EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.  The trait?  Short arms.  Draft rooms would be worried that NFL offensive tackles with long arms would get their hands on Bain and stall him.  There are a lot of pass rushers towards the top of this draft and Texas Tech’s David Bailey (who I would love as a Raven by the way), Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell, Auburn’s Keldric Faulk and Clemson’s T.J. Parker could all conceivably go ahead of him – if the “arms” issue holds true.  The tape says otherwise.  The stats say otherwise.  Bain was dominant.  If this actually happens, and this guy falls out of the top ten, we may be seeing all the draftniks say “the Ravens did it again.”

One can only hope.

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