OTL: Midseason Playoff Outlook & Bubble Watch

I am a huge fan of college basketball, so in that spirit, I am going to present this article in the “Bubble Watch” format that is used to predict the NCAA tournament teams to take a look at what teams are locks for the playoffs, should-be-ins, on the bubble, and long shots for both the AFC and NFC.

For a schedule breakdown for the AFC playoff contenders for weeks 10-14, please see my previous article:

Slicing Into Schedules: A Look at Weeks 10-14 for AFC Playoff Contenders

Definitions

LOCKS:  These are teams that will be in the playoffs barring an epic collapse.

SHOULD-BE-IN:  These are teams that I am pretty confident will make the playoffs, but they haven’t quite reached lock status, due to combination of their record and upcoming schedule.

ON THE BUBBLE:  These are the teams that are fighting for the last few playoff spots.

LONG SHOTS:  These are teams that have a very small chance at making playoffs, but not out of the realm of possibility.

NOT IN CONTENTION:  These are teams that I am confident will not be in the playoffs.

AFC LOCKS

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

Hiccup in Pittsburgh aside, they are rolling and I think they will easily win the AFC South.  I do not have confidence in the Jacksonville Jaguars or Houston Texans to catch them. Even if one of those teams somehow has an epic 2^nd half run, it’s hard to see the Colts not getting to at least 11-6 which would surely be enough to get a wild card spot.

New England Patriots (7-2)

This one pains me to include because I have a huge disdain for the Patriots (you can see where I live in my username), but like it or not, they will be in the playoffs. Their schedule is Charmin soft: four more all but gimme-wins – vs. Jets (twice), Dolphins, and Giants.  The question is can they take advantage of their soft schedule to win the division over the Buffalo Bills?

Buffalo Bills (7-2)

The Bills cemented their LOCK status by defeating Kansas City. Their path to winning the AFC East is a bit murky though, because they still have games against the Buccaneers, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, and Eagles. They’re absolutely a top wild card at the very least.

AFC SHOULD-BE-INS

Denver Broncos (7-2)

They are definitely approaching lock status, but they still have some tough games remaining, notably the Chiefs twice, Commanders, Packers, Jaguars, and Chargers, so I have them firmly in this category.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

I almost included the Chiefs in locks because it’s near impossible to imagine the playoffs without Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but I held off because they are just a game over .500 and still have some challenging games left, notably against the Broncos twice, Colts, and Chargers.

AFC BUBBLE TEAMS

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Steelers are in the lead in the AFC North.  Their chances of winning the division depend on the play of Ravens and Bengals who are trying to revive their seasons and catch them/and or play spoiler, as well as how they do with a 2^nd-half schedule that is much harder than the first half.  Their 2^nd half schedule consists of key AFC North battles (the Ravens twice and Bengals once) plus tough games against the Chargers, Bills, and Lions.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

The Chargers have battled through some key injuries to remain in contention.  They will have several tough tests in the 2^nd half of the season with a demanding schedule.  They still have games left against the Steelers, Jaguars, Eagles, Chiefs, and Broncos.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

I don’t trust the Jaguars, but they certainly can’t be discounted.  They only have four games left against teams .500 or better (Chargers, Colts twice, and Broncos).  If they can take care of business against bad teams and steal a win or two from good teams, they have a shot.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Obviously, the Ravens dug themselves a big hole starting 1-5, so they have left themselves no room for error.  I think they need to get to at least 10 wins to have a legitimate shot.  First and foremost, they have to take care of business in the AFC North.  They have games remaining against the Steelers twice, Bengals twice in three weeks, and the pesky Cleveland Browns. I think the Ravens can’t afford to lose more than one of those games; if they go 5-1 in division, they’ll be guaranteed to win the tiebreaker over the Steelers since the Steelers already have a division loss. (vs. Cincy). The Ravens need to take care of business and win their next three games (at Vikings, at Browns, vs. NY Jets) before a very demanding six-game stretch to end the season (Bengals, Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers).

AFC LONG SHOTS

Houston Texans (3-5)

The Texans looked dead in the water early, but have shown some life recently, so they can’t be totally discounted.  They will have to play a lot better football against some good teams to stay in contention.  They still have games left against the Jaguars, Bills, Colts twice, Chiefs, and Chargers. Their path gets even more difficult if C.J. Stroud misses time after being placed in concussion protocol.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

The Bengals have got to be kicking themselves after two disastrous losses to the Jets and Bears, despite tremendous offensive play by Joe Flacco, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.  Their defense is so bad that I don’t think they can be legitimate contenders, but they could definitely play spoiler down the stretch.  After the Week 10 bye, their next five games are at Steelers, vs. Patriots, at Ravens, at Bills, and vs. Ravens.  If they survive that gauntlet, the schedule does ease up the last three weeks (at Dolphins, vs. Cardinals, vs. Browns), and Joe Burrow could return (though how much better can he be than Flacco, really??)

AFC NOT-IN-CONTENTION

Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans

NFC LOCKS

Eagles (6-2)

While the Eagles haven’t been as dominant as many expected, they are finding their stride.  Much like the Packers, they still have some challenging games left, but I can’t see them falling out of the playoffs.  It also looks like they have the division in hand as the Commanders and Cowboys are both falling off precipitously.  They will be tested throughout the 2^nd half of the season with games against the Packers, Lions, Bears, Chargers, Commanders twice, and Bills.

Buccaneers (6-2)

The Buccaneers are helped by a very weak division, though the Panthers have been a pleasant surprise, so Tampa hasn’t run away with it yet.  The Bucs have a demanding three-game stretch (Patriots, at Bills, at Rams), but then the schedule lightens up.  I would be shocked if they don’t ultimately win the NFC South.

NFC SHOULD-BE-INS

Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

The Packers are a darn good football team.  They still have some challenging games remaining, but I can’t see them falling into the freefall it would take to fall out of the playoffs. They should be in a neck-and-neck battle with the Detroit Lions for the NFC North.  They will be tested throughout 2^nd half of season with games against the Eagles, Lions, Bears twice, Broncos, and Ravens.

Seahawks (6-2)

The Seahawks have looked tough and appear to be in a great three-way fight for the NFC West with the Rams and 49ers.  Tough games down the stretch include Commanders, Rams twice, Colts, and 49ers.  At this point, I fully expect the NFC West to produce three playoff teams.

Rams (6-2)

The Rams have looked tough and as just mentioned, are in a three-way fight for the NFC West with the Seahawks and 49ers.  Tough games down the stretch include 49ers, Seahawks twice, Buccaneers, and Lions.

San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

The 49ers are in the mix for the NFC West with the Seahawks and Rams.  They have overcome significant injuries and hope QB Brock Purdy can get back healthy and lead them to a division title.  As with the other NFC West teams, they still have some tough games remaining including the Rams, Colts, Bears, and Seahawks.  The 49ers are in a good situation for NFC West tiebreakers having gone 3-0 in division beating all three division teams already.

Lions (5-3)

I firmly believe the Lions are one of the best teams in football, despite a surprising loss at home to Minnesota.  They do have a tough schedule down the stretch, so they will be tested, and I expect them to be in a neck-and-neck fight with the Packers for the NFC North.  They still have remaining games vs. Commanders, Eagles, Packers, Rams, Steelers, and Bears.

NFC BUBBLE TEAMS

Chicago Bears (5-3)

I still don’t buy the Bears as contenders, but they are over .500 and so they can’t be written off.  They have some tough games ahead including Steelers, Eagles, Packers twice, Lions, and 49ers.  I think the seven teams listed above are better than them, but they have a chance to prove me wrong, or take advantage if one of the other teams below falters.

Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The Carolina Panthers have done better than I expected, but I don’t view them as contenders.  They still have tough games remaining against the 49ers, Rams, Buccaneers twice, and Seahawks.  Like Chicago, since they are over .500, they’re here.

NFC LONG SHOTS

Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

After an impressive road victory at the Detroit Lions with the return of J.J. McCarthy, they Vikings crawled back to .500 and as such are firmly in playoff contention.  McCarthy will have to prove to be consistent in order to keep the Vikings in the playoff race.  The Vikings have a brutal schedule left including games against the Ravens, Bears, Packers twice, Seahawks, Commanders, and Lions.

Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

Just when I thought it was time to start taking the Falcons seriously, they somehow manage to get blown out by the lowly Dolphins in Week 8.  This team has shown flashes, so who knows?  It will take a herculean effort to either catch the Bucs in the division or pass one of the other wildcard contenders to squeeze into the playoffs.  The Falcons have tough games remaining against the Colts, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Rams.

Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

The Arizona Cardinals looked dead in the water after dropping five straight weeks 3-7.  They rebounded to win on the road at Dallas to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive.  They will have to play very good football to crawl back into contention because they have a very demanding schedule including games against the Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and the Los Angeles Rams twice.

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)

The Cowboys defense is too inconsistent to be taken seriously, but they have an explosive offense, especially with a very good WR duo in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.  They still have tough games left against the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, Chargers, and Commanders, but the defense is basically the Bengals of the NFC.

Washington Commanders (3-6)

The Washington Commanders have been hit hard by injury, and have left themselves in a pretty big hole.  It’s hard to see them sneaking back into contention, especially with QB Jayden Daniels set to miss more time with what was a gruesome looking dislocated elbow. They have a demanding scheduled that includes games against the Lions, Broncos, Vikings, and Eagles twice.

NFC NOT-IN-CONTENTION

New York Giants, New Orleans Saints

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