Chicago Cubs: Michael Busch’s seemingly conservative projections

Projection numbers are coming out for the 2026 season, including those from FanGraphs DC, Steamer, and THE BAT. An interesting Chicago Cubs player’s projected stats to look at are those of Michael Busch. He was one of, if not arguably the most productive Cub down the stretch in 2025 and is a key cog in the team’s future success.

What Michael Busch is projected to do in 2026.

Here is what each of the previously listed projection models gives regarding Busch’s performance this coming season:

FanGraphs DC (FGDC): .248/.334/.467, .801 OPS, 27 HR, 74 RBI, 124 wRC+, 24.7% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate in 138 games

Steamer: .248/.334/.467, .801 OPS, 23 HR, 63 RBI, 124 wRC+, 24.7% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate in 113 games

THE BAT: .242 /.324/.442, .766 OPS, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 114 wRC+, 25.4% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate in 140 games

Are these numbers too conservative? Or on the mark?

These models project similar outcomes, which one could consider slightly disappointing. None of these are bad stat lines, though it’s coming off last year’s .261/.343/.523, .866 OPS, 34 homer, and 140 wRC+ season (155 games).

Average, on-base, strikeout, and walk rates still seem within reason. Busch posting a .242-.248 average and .330 range OBP is not as big of a concern. His projected slash lines are on par with his career line (.248/.334/.467), as are the strikeout and walk rates (26.5% K and 10.2% BB) and wRC+ (124). Although he’s only played two full seasons at the MLB level, last year could be his ascention as a hitter. Busch’s career marks cover a smaller sample than those of a seasoned veteran like Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, or Ian Happ, so there’s not a larger sample of season trends for him.

With all of that said, the hope at the very least is to see a bit more in the slug and home run columns, as well as in games played. Which in turn would help those homer totals. Projected games played range from 113 to 140, noting that Busch played over 150 games in each of the past two seasons. Craig Counsell mentioned him being a regular at first during the Cubs Convention. Assuming health, it seems likely he play 150+ games.

Ideal numbers for Michael Busch in 2026.

Ideally Busch can hit the 30-homer mark and slug around .500 in 150 games again. Him posting around an .830 OPS and 130-140 wRC+ on top of 30 homers should not be out of the question. There’s no guarantee though, and if he is closer to what Steamer and FanGraphs DC say, those numbers are still fine. It would just be nice to see him build or maintain what he did last year.

For what it is worth, projections tend to be a bit more conservative. In an extreme case, Aaron Judge is projected to post a 172 wRC+ by Steamer, even though he’s posted a 200+ wRC+ in three of the past four seasons. It’s a more conservative number (for Judge), but certainly not out of the question.

Whether it’s a 125 wRC+ or 140, Busch will be one of the top productive sluggers in this Cubs lineup.

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