Chicago Cubs are not shoo-ins to win NL Central, according to analysts

The Chicago Cubs have real reason to believe that they are the favorites to win the NL Central Division. They made a lot of impact moves this offseason and a lot of smaller depth acquisitions that provide ample insurance if/when plans go sideways.

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The biggest move may have been the signing of free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, who brings veteran leadership, a strong bat, and stellar defense to the team.

Right behind the acquisition of Bregman, in terms of potential impact, was the trade for emerging powerhouse starter Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins.

Then, there was the re-stocking of a depleted bullpen with four free agent relievers (Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Hunter Harvey).

And beyond all of that, Chicago went out of its way to acquire depth pieces at every possible position, but especially in the area of pitching.

So, yes, given their success last season and the moves made this offseason, it’s no mystery why the consensus opinion among fans and experts is that the Cubs will win their division.

But that belief is not universal.

The emerging Reds

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Steve Phillips of MLB Network is giving the Cincinnati Reds a real chance of winning the division this coming season:

“Their starting pitching matches up with anybody… I think the Reds have a real chance to win the NL Central this year. They’re going to be well beyond 78-79 wins.”

This past offseason, the Terry Francona-led Reds acquired free agent slugger Eugenio Suarez, who just happens to be a verifiable Cubs killer. They also made considerable efforts to rebuild their bullpen.

Given their spirited 2025, which led to an NL Wild Card spot, they will be a team to watch in 2026.

The Pirates as dark horse NL Central contenders

Robert Murray of Fansided is fancying the Pittsburgh Pirates as dark horse contenders to upset the Cubs’ hopes:

“Ryan O’Hearn compared them to the 2023 Baltimore Orioles, a group that came out of nowhere to win 101 games and the AL East, and it’s hard not to be impressed by what Pittsburgh is building.

Their pitching staff, headlined by Paul Skenes, speaks for itself. But now they have a credible offense with new additions such as Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe and O’Hearn to pair with Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and more. Their new manager, Don Kelly, has drawn rave reviews from folks early on. I’m optimistic about what’s to come with the Pirates, and I know I’m not alone there.”

Both the Reds and Pirates are notably improved teams with, seemingly, real hunger heading into the 2026 campaign. The Milwaukee Brewers, however, should also never be counted out, even after trading away pitcher Freddy Peralta and making other high-profile subtractions.

The Cubs, meanwhile, do have some question marks and causes for concern.

Causes for Cubs concern

Chicago’s deep starting rotation, which will carry six viable starters when Justin Steele returns, is also full of health and durability concerns.

Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, and Edward Cabrera have extensive history of injury. Steele is coming off elbow surgery that forced him to miss all of last season. Shota Imanaga was on the shelf with a hamstring injury for nearly 8 weeks in 2025. James Taillon, meanwhile, was on the IL twice last year.

Closer Daniel Palencia is due to resume his game-closing role in 2026. But, for as good as he looked for much of his breakthrough 2025, he looked just as bad down the stretch of the season. He posted an ugly 7.07 ERA in his final 17 regular season appearances, with an IL stint after the first week of September to boot.

There’s also the possibility of regression is some players who had career offensive years last season, such as Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki.

Despite being the clear favorites to take the NL Central Division, the Cubs may have to scrap and fight their way to the top. People are starting to acknowledge that now.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-nl-central-predictions-reds-pirates-brewers/